SOL is heading towards the $200 mark – 3 important catalysts to follow

Solana (SOL) faced strong rejection at the $158 level on Monday. Subsequently, the price fell to $143 on Wednesday, losing 14% over the week before rising back to $147 at the time of writing. Currently, traders are concerned that the opportunity for SOL to return to the $200 mark is gradually diminishing, as demand for leveraged SOL positions rises to the sky in the context of recent price weakness.

Total OI futures contracts SOL | Source: CoinGlassAs of Wednesday, the total open interest (OI) on SOL futures contracts has reached 45.7 million SOL, a rise to the sky of 19% compared to last month. Although each Long position is matched with a Short position, the level of leverage used by each party may vary. These open positions currently have a value of about 6.7 billion dollars, making it particularly important to assess which side is being more aggressive.

**Will the approval of the Solana ETF provide price benefits?

The funding rate ( funding fee ) on perpetual futures contracts is a key indicator reflecting market sentiment. Under neutral conditions, the annual funding rate usually fluctuates between 5% and 15%, indicating that Long positions are paying a fee to maintain their positions. When the market becomes pessimistic, this rate often falls below that threshold.

Total OI of SOL futures contracts | Source: Laevitas.chOn Wednesday, the funding rate of SOL fell to 0%, indicating an increasing demand for Short positions. More importantly, this indicator has not been able to maintain above the 15% annual threshold for the past three months, reflecting a growing lack of confidence from the bulls. Even the rise to $185 in mid-May was not enough to rekindle interest in leveraged Long positions.

Although leveraged Long positions are not a prerequisite for SOL to return to the $200 mark, a significant change in investor sentiment is a key factor. Without newly restored confidence, the market may continue to face selling pressure. The performance of SOL remains closely tied to the level of activity on the Solana network, which has fallen into a state of stagnation over the past three months after a record high in January.

TVL of the Solana network (trái) vs the weekly revenue of DApps (phải) | Source: DefiLlamaThe total value of (TVL) locked on the Solana network has remained stable at nearly $10 billion, while weekly revenue from (DApp) decentralized applications has fallen below $40 million. By comparison, these DApps used to generate more than $100 million per week between mid-November and mid-February.

The recent decline of SOL also reflects the excessive expectations fueled by the memecoin wave, especially after the memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP) was released on the Solana network. This surprised many traders, as prior projects related to the U.S. president largely favored Ethereum.

The ability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the Solana spot ETF fund is considered the most important short-term catalyst for this token. However, according to a stock research report by Cantor Fitzgerald, analysts believe that SOL will benefit even more from the long-term growth trend of tokenized securities on the Solana blockchain.

According to the report, analysts assert that Solana "outperforms Ethereum in every aspect" and predict that more and more businesses will use SOL as a reserve asset in their treasury. They also emphasize the strong growth rate of the developer community and the higher operational performance compared to Ethereum's complex layer-2 ecosystem.

Although the price target of 200 dollars for SOL may be out of reach based on current derivatives data, the increasing interest from institutions and the wave of practical blockchain applications could quickly reverse market sentiment.

Dinh Dinh