BTC is fluctuating at a high level, and the market is rationally pulling back. Macroeconomic policies have become key indicators.

1. Market Review: Bitcoin is consolidating at a high level, mainstream assets are showing resilience.

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market as a whole has maintained a high-level volatility pattern. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $112,000 in early June, but lacked upside momentum before retreating to a range of $108,000 to $110,000. As of June 10, BTC was trading at around $109,000, narrowing its weekly gains to less than 2%. From a technical point of view, $105,000 has become a temporary support, while $111,000 above is still an important short-term resistance.

Ethereum (ETH) is relatively solid, hovering above $3,800. It is worth noting that Ethereum-related investment products have achieved net inflows for the seventh consecutive week, and the latest week has attracted $250 million, showing that institutions still have confidence in the long-term potential of ETH. Mainstream currencies such as Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK) also recorded gains of 1%-3%, while some small-cap tokens such as SUI and HYPE were active, rising more than 7% weekly.

On-chain data further confirms that the market is becoming more rational: the continuous decline in exchange BTC balances indicates that investors are choosing to hold for the medium to long term; while the futures market has not seen large-scale liquidations, suggesting that the overall leverage ratio remains within a healthy range. Overall, although the current market lacks breakthrough catalysts, the fundamentals are stable and the structure is sound.

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2. Macroeconomic variables influence trends, and the Federal Reserve's direction becomes the market focus.

Over the past week, the movement of the crypto market has been largely influenced by macro expectations. In the US, investors are highly focused on the upcoming CPI and non-farm payrolls data for May. The market expects the CPI to remain around 3.3%, while the number of new non-farm payrolls may slow to 130,000. A lower-than-expected reading will further strengthen bets on a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Regarding the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell's recent public statements continue to remain cautious, without making a clear indication on the policy direction. However, from the pricing of federal funds rate futures, the market's bet on the probability of at least one rate cut within the year is still rising. Against this backdrop, cryptocurrency assets have once again become the "liquidity expectation barometer" in the eyes of institutions as a tool for hedging against inflation and liquidity tightening.

At the same time, stablecoin issuer Circle's IPO plan has attracted a lot of attention from the market. The company plans to list on the NYSE this week, raising nearly $900 million with a target valuation of about $7.2 billion. As the issuer of USDC, the listing of Circle marks a new stage in the integration of the crypto industry with the traditional capital market. The Payment Stablecoin Transparency Act, which is being promoted by the U.S. Congress, will provide a clear legal framework for the compliant use of stablecoins and further lower the threshold for institutional entry.

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3. The trend of international monetary easing is becoming apparent, and the global economic outlook is under pressure.

In the realm of international finance, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point reduction in its main interest rate last week, marking the first rate cut since 2023. The decline in inflation in the Eurozone and the slowdown in economic growth have become the main reasons for the shift in monetary policy. The market generally expects that if the Eurozone economy continues to weaken, the ECB will continue to release liquidity in the coming months, a trend that will inject a moderate easing signal into the global market.

Meanwhile, the World Bank lowered its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.3% in 2025 in its latest report, warning that the global economy may be entering its weakest growth cycle since the 1960s. Among them, North America and Europe face higher structural risks against the backdrop of widening fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions and rising trade frictions. In the UK, the latest unemployment rate rose to a one-year high of 4.6%, reflecting the fragile fundamentals of the economic recovery.

For the crypto market, the shift to accommodative global monetary policy is inherently a positive sign, especially as institutions are looking for non-traditional assets to optimize asset allocation, and the relative attractiveness of crypto assets is increasing. However, in an environment of high macro uncertainty, the market may still experience a period of volatility and volatility.

Opportunities in Rational Corrections

According to 4E observations, the cryptocurrency market is returning to rationality after being overheated. Although there is a lack of strong catalysts in the short term, stable on-chain data, continued institutional investment, and a gradually clearer compliance path for stablecoins all provide support for the medium to long-term market.

In the coming week, the market will focus on key nodes such as US CPI and non-farm payrolls data, Circle's listing performance and regulatory advancement, and the follow-up actions of European monetary policy. It is recommended that investors maintain a neutral position, focus on mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, beware of short-term pullbacks, and wait for the medium-term trend to become clear again.

About 4E: As the official partner of the Argentine national team, the 4E platform supports one-stop trading of cryptocurrency, gold, U.S. stocks, indices, foreign exchange and other assets. Recently, it has also launched a campaign to get 88U for new users to provide investors with trading benefits. With the help of 4E, investors can keep up with market dynamics, flexibly adjust their strategies, and seize every potential opportunity.