Is Solana going to break out? ETF sprint + Meme frenzy, who will dominate in the dual explosion!

Solana has made big news again.

The US SEC has recently begun requiring issuers of Solana spot ETFs to update their S-1 prospectuses. This "updating the prospectus" operation, to put it bluntly, is telling the market: the review process is accelerating!

You may remember that the ETH spot ETF was officially announced and approved less than two weeks after the S-1 update. As a result, many people have started to compare Solana with ETH to see if this "altcoin number two" has a chance to replicate that surge in the market. Let's make a simple comparison:

Progress Phase Ethereum (ETH) ETF Solana (SOL) ETF 19b-4 Approval SEC Approved (May 2024) Submitted (June-December 2024), Review Deadline October 16, 2025 S-1 Prospectus Submission Multiple Institutions Have Submitted and Updated, Launch in July 2024 Multiple Institutions Have Submitted, SEC Requires S-1 Update in June 2025 Approval Expectations Launched in July 2024 (Staking ETF May Launch in June 2025) Earliest Mid-July 2025, Conservative Estimate October Potential Beneficiary Assets ETH Main Coin, L2 Ecosystem

SOL main coin, Meme coin ecosystem

Can you see it? Although Solana has not yet reached the "official approval" position of ETH in the process, it has now entered the stage of "ETF opinion catalysis + market speculation in advance." Moreover, because the trading volume and market capitalization of the Solana native token are not as large as ETH, its marginal driving force may actually be stronger.

But the question arises: the current on-chain activity of Solana is simply not the "main coin's home ground."

Structural Dislocation: Major Coins Silent, Meme Coins Surging

Looking at the hot search rankings on the Solana chain, almost all of them are dominated by Meme coins: WIF, BOME, POPCAT, JEFF... Various animal avatars and meme culture, with people daily shouting about 10x, 30x, or even hundredfold fortunes. Meanwhile, as the "main character" of the Solana ecosystem, the main coin SOL has become the least talked about and least lively one.

This constitutes a very interesting structural contradiction:

On one side, retail investors on the chain are speculating on Memes, chasing upswings and selling on downturns, with short-term sentiment running high;

On one side, the ETF is about to emerge, which means traditional institutions are paying attention to the SOL main coin and preparing for long-term allocation.

Two streams of capital - one hot, one cold; one fast, one slow; are now perfectly "misaligned and converging" within the Solana ecosystem. So the question arises:

Will SOL surge like ETH, boosted by the ETF catalyst, leading to a wave of main coin rebound?

Or will it continue to be marginalized by the meme craze, obviously the protagonist, but never the highlight moment?

So you may have already realized - the current market trend of Solana is far more than just the story that can be told with the three letters "ETF". Meme popularity, the technical aspects of the main coins, on-chain activity, and off-exchange capital layout... these factors are weaving together a multi-threaded trading environment where emotions and fundamentals intertwine. As a trader, the key has never been to "pick a side", but to identify discrepancies in rhythm and expectations, and based on that, formulate a smarter trading plan.

SOL Main Coin: Trend Logic + ETF Expectations, Key Focus on Breakthrough and Confirmation

Compared to the highly volatile Meme coins, the trend of the SOL main coin is more trend-driven. Especially against the backdrop of strong ETF expectations, technical analysis tends to focus more on structural breakthroughs + pullback confirmations as medium-term signals.

Currently, the SOL price has surpassed the EMA20 and EMA30 moving averages and is exhibiting a clear bullish arrangement structure. At the same time, the trading volume is gradually increasing, and the RSI has broken through the overbought threshold, indicating that a positive resonance signal is forming in the technical analysis. In the short term, it has broken through the oscillation platform around $160, and the next test will be the key resistance zone of the previous high range of $185~$187. If the market can form an effective volume breakout in this range and stabilize above $180, the medium-term main upward wave structure is expected to be established. At the same time, we can focus on the following key technological signals:

Indicator/Pattern Significance Volume breakout of the 160~170 USD platform Bullish momentum release signal, if continued volume can further challenge previous highs EMA20/30 golden cross and showing bullish divergence Confirming trend direction upward, supporting medium-term holding strategy RSI strongly breaks through 70 (currently overbought) Sentiment is extremely hot, but no divergence has occurred, can continue to maintain strong structure observation Continuous volume expansion + no stagnation structure Healthy capital inflow rhythm, indicating that the main currency has not been diluted by Meme market attention.

Traders can focus on: whether a "breakout with increased volume and a high-level consolidation that does not break EMA20" structure has formed. Otherwise, if there is stagnation with an increased volume long upper shadow bearish candle, SOL is still expected to show a medium-term trend catalyzed by ETFs.

Meme Coin: Emotional Game + High Volatility, Focus More on Trading Volume and Short-term Structure

The trading logic of Meme coins is completely different from that of major coins; it is more like a short-term game driven by emotions and speculation, with technical analysis being more of an aid in judging popularity and positioning in the game. Coins like WIF and BOME often see a rise of several points in a single candlestick, which is usually driven by emotional catalysts (trending topics, KOL endorsements, traffic from trading platforms).

For example, WIF's price quickly rose from about $0.95 to $1.0780 from June 10 to June 11, an increase of over 13%, clearly driven by a surge in trading volume (the volume bar on June 10 was significantly enlarged). This means that technical analysis should pay more attention to "emotional turning points" and "volume-price explosions."

For this type of cryptocurrency, commonly used short-term indicators include:

Indicators/Patterns Purpose Volume Explosion + Increased Long Bullish Typical Start Signal, Emotional Ignition RSI (Extreme Overbought/Oversold) Determine whether to enter a short-term top or bottom reversal zone Bollinger Band Convergence + Volume Breakthrough Starting Node, Often Accompanied by Emotional Concentration Explosion MACD Top Divergence/Bottom Divergence Determine whether there is short-term adjustment risk after excessive rise Tick-by-tick Order Analysis (Advanced) Determine whether there are wash trading or market dumping behaviors

Traders can focus on: whether there is a "sideways contraction with sudden explosive volume attack" structure, and whether it overlaps with hot topics, KOL recommendations, and other external catalysts.

Main Coin vs Meme Coin: A Comparison of Technical Analysis Differences

Project SOL Main Coin Meme Coin Core Driving Logic Mid-to-long term trends, institutional games, ETF expectations Short-term sentiment flow, social media heat, speculative behavior Major technical signals Breaking resistance levels, trend continuation, multiple moving averages in bullish alignment Volume explosion, Bollinger band breakout, sentiment inflection point Indicator preferences EMA moving average system, MACD trend, OBV, CMF RSI extremes, Bollinger bands, volume K-line, K-line structure combinations Trading rhythm Neutral to mid-line, relatively gentle rhythm Short to quick lines, rapid initiation, rapid retreat Risk management focus Set defense zones (such as previous platform levels) Quick in and out + profit-taking and stop-loss discipline

Meme Carnival vs ETF Layout: Hedge or Resonance?

The lively scene on the Solana chain actually hides two worlds intertwining behind it:

One is a meme coin frenzy composed of retail investors on the chain, frequently experiencing FOMO, all-in bets, and wild price fluctuations;

One is that off-market institutions construct an asset allocation pool for the SOL main coin through channels such as ETFs.

The two worlds appear to be in a hedge relationship in the short term—retail investors create emotional fluctuations on-chain, while institutions are slowly waiting for certainty opportunities to enter the market. However, in the long run, they may not be unable to form resonance. The traffic of Meme coins is a reflection of the popularity of the Solana ecosystem; and an active ecosystem can precisely provide real support for the value of the main coin.

For us traders, what matters more is not "which side to choose", but how to catch the rhythm difference correctly:

During emotional cycles, participate in Meme coins and seize swing trading opportunities.

As the ETF window approaches, hide the SOL main coin to capture the main upward wave.

As long as you grasp it properly, Memes and main coins do not necessarily have to be opposing forces; they can completely become the dual engines in your position allocation.

Therefore, in the face of this double-line market of "main coin vs meme coin", what kind of technical perspective you choose actually determines which timeline you stand on. But this is not an either/or confrontation, but a multi-dimensional game of rhythm and configuration. A truly mature trader is not just chasing the wind, but can identify the running track of different logics and grasp the dislocation flow of funds. ETFs are opportunities, memes are tools, and it is possible to get out of their own win rate curve in the new narrative of Solana.