Is Bitcoin about to reverse? On-chain data reveals signs of mass take profit.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded 7 consecutive weeks of increases, pushing the price above the 100,000 USD mark. However, some new signals suggest that this bull run may be losing momentum.

Determining the exact timing of a reversal is always challenging. However, some specific signs are indicating an increasing risk - particularly for investors who have not yet established a solid position.

The 7-week rally is about to end

The first signal comes from the wallet group with a large amount of BTC – this group has stopped accumulating and started reallocating assets.

Data from Glassnode confirms this trend. In May, the accumulation score of wallets holding over 10,000 BTC dropped sharply, from around 0.8 to below 0.5. This change is also clearly reflected in the color shift from blue to orange on the chart.

"The group of wallets holding the most BTC has started reallocating," Thuan Capital shared.

! BTC Wallet Group Accumulation Points Chart | Source: GlassnodeIn addition, wallets owning between 1-10,000 BTC also show weak accumulation behavior, as illustrated by the fading blue patches. Only a group of wallets smaller than 1 BTC are moving from an allocation state to a strong accumulation, largely driven by the FOMO effect as the BTC price hits a new high.

This data shows that the profit-taking trend is occurring among large investors, while retail investors are chasing short-term expectations.

Another alarming signal comes from UTXO (Unspent Transaction Outputs) – a technical mechanism that ensures each BTC is only spent once, while also reflecting the unrealized profit ratio across the entire network.

! Bitcoin euphoria when 99% of UTXOs are profitable | Source: CryptoQuantData from CryptoQuant shows that, when 99% of UTXOs are profitable, the market often falls into a state of "excessive euphoria". Historically, such periods often appear just before price corrections. Whether it is a short-term or long-term correction, this signal still indicates an increasing risk for the buyers.

"It is difficult to say that the market is in a period of euphoria at the moment. The macro context and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies have made investors still not fully shift to risk-taking psychology. When this 99% ratio drops, unlocked profits will shrink, which can trigger a wave of profit-taking and cause latecomers to sell to cut losses," said analyst Darkfost.

As of now, the upward momentum of Bitcoin has stalled around the mark of 109,000 USD, and there are no clear signs of a major correction. According to analysts, the accumulation of BTC is still occurring strongly, especially within the global corporate sector. Many experts maintain a positive outlook on the prospects of Bitcoin.

"The wave of institutional demand is reshaping the entire Bitcoin market: asset management platforms are preparing to offer access to Bitcoin ETFs, listed companies are adding BTC to their treasury to optimize shareholder profits, and some countries are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves with Bitcoin to hedge against geopolitical risks. All of these factors are creating a supply-demand imbalance. In the next 18 months, Bitcoin will solidify its role as a global store of value asset," shared Juan Leon, Senior Investment Strategist at Bitwise Asset Management.

Although short-term indicators are showing the possibility of a correction in the near future, the long-term expectations of analysts remain unchanged – Bitcoin is still positioned as a strategic asset this year and next year.

Itadori