Can the Bitcoin bulls hold the $110,000 level before the $13.8 billion BTC options expire?

Bitcoin is approaching the largest monthly options expiration day of 2025, with total exposure reaching $13.8 billion. This event presents the bulls with an opportunity to secure Bitcoin prices above $110,000, as the bears have been caught off guard by a 25% bullish move in the past 30 days.

OI Bitcoin options on May 30 (USD) | Source: Laevitas.chThe open interest amount (OI) for Put Bitcoin is currently at 6.5 billion dollars, but 95% of this is set with a strike price below 109,000 dollars. Therefore, if the price of Bitcoin remains above this level, there will be less than 350 million dollars of Put value still valid at expiration.

Conversely, the amount of Bitcoin Call OI with a strike price of up to 109,000 dollars totals 3.8 billion dollars. However, this discrepancy does not mean that all Call holders are betting on the bullish potential of Bitcoin. Some traders may have sold these options to hedge against risks for positions exceeding a certain price level.

The top BTC options strategies on Deribit in the past two weeks | Source: Laevitas.chOne of the most notable options strategies traded on the Deribit exchange in the past two weeks is the "Short Call", which is commonly used by investors to seek fixed profits as long as the price of Bitcoin stays above a certain level. Similarly, the "Bull Call Spread" strategy helps mitigate downside risk by accepting a cap on profit when the price exceeds a specific level.

Strong capital inflow into Bitcoin ETF funds reduces the risk of further price declines

If Bitcoin maintains above the level of $109,000, most bullish strategies will yield positive returns during the May options expiration. However, the bears may try to influence the futures market to limit losses as the expiration date approaches.

The total OI value in the Bitcoin futures market currently stands at 79 billion dollars, indicating strong demand for Short positions. However, this strategy could backfire if the price of Bitcoin exceeds 110,000 dollars, forcing the bears to close their positions.

Net capital flow of $1.9 billion into Bitcoin spot ETF funds in the United States from May 20 to May 22 indicates that buying demand at levels above $105,000 remains very strong. Ultimately, the bears' main hope lies in a weaker macroeconomic environment, which could increase risk-averse sentiment and reduce demand for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin bulls target $110,000 on May 30

Below are four potential scenarios based on the current price trend. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on the OI differential and do not include complex strategies:

– In the range of $102,000 – $105,000: $2.75 billion Call versus $900 million Put. The net result leans towards Call with an advantage of $1.85 billion.

– In the range of $105,000 – $107,000: $3.3 billion Call versus $650 million Put, a $2.65 billion advantage leaning towards Call.

– In the range of 107,000 – 110,000 dollars: 3.7 billion dollars Call compared to 350 million dollars Put, with a 3.35 billion dollar advantage leaning towards Call.

– In the range of 110,000 – 114,000 dollars: 4.8 billion dollars Call versus 120 million dollars Put, with a 4.7 billion dollars advantage leaning towards Call.

The bulls can maximize profits if they push the Bitcoin price above the $110,000 mark, which could also help set a new all-time high. However, the current upward momentum still depends on the development of the ongoing tariff war – a factor that has been of particular interest in recent weeks.

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