Why This Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Isn't Bringing the Usual Hype

The current Bitcoin cycle feels unusually subdued compared to previous bull runs. Despite price appreciation, the level of excitement and retail participation remains muted.

CryptoQuant believes that an important on-chain metric underlines this shift – the percentage of BTC held for one week to one month is significantly lower than in past cycles.

This suggests that the explosive influx of new participants, which once fueled rapid price rallies, is largely absent.

Bitcoin’s Slow Burn

According to the latest analysis shared by CryptoQuant, two main factors are contributing to this change.

First, the macroeconomic backdrop has shifted dramatically. Unlike the 2020-2021 cycle, which was powered by near-zero interest rates and aggressive monetary easing, today’s market operates under tight liquidity conditions and sustained high interest rates. Capital is less willing to flow freely, which has made large, euphoric price movements harder to achieve.

Second, the market’s leadership has shifted from retail investors to institutions, particularly following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional flows are more measured, which has contributed to a structured, gradual uptrend rather than the chaotic volatility of earlier cycles.

This evolving structure has created a more cautious market atmosphere. Some analysts misinterpret this slower pace as a sign that the cycle has peaked. CryptoQuant, on the other hand, suggests that it would be premature. Instead of a traditional boom-and-bust pattern, this cycle may play out as a longer, more complex progression. ETF inflows remain steady, and if macro conditions ease, further upside is still possible.

“In times like this, what matters most isn’t chasing quick pumps – It’s understanding the slower structure and having the patience to stay with it.”

‘Wait and See’ Approach in Short Term

In its latest market update, QCP Capital reported that Bitcoin risk reversals remain skewed in favor of puts through June, which indicates that traders are still adopting a mildly cautious stance in the near term.

This positioning reflects broader market hesitation as the crypto asset continues to consolidate within the $80,000 to $90,000 range, with participants largely adopting a “wait and see” approach amid uncertainty surrounding the global tariff landscape. However, QCP also notes a shift in sentiment further out on the curve.

Over the weekend, the firm observed aggressive buying of 800 contracts of the BTC-27MAR26-100K call option – an indication of growing long-term bullish positioning. This suggests that while short-term caution persists, institutional appetite for upside exposure is building.