US inflation figures have changed Fed expectations: Here are the forecasts

The U.S. inflation figures coming in at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, have increased predictions for interest rate cuts.

Yesterday, the anticipated interest rate cuts for 2025, originally projected at 78 basis points, increased to 89 basis points. Additionally, the likelihood of a rate cut in May is seen at 23 percent. On the other hand, the probability of a cut in June has also risen and is starting to be priced in at 79 percent. The likelihood of two cuts by July is priced at 67 percent. The probability of four interest rate cuts in 2025 rose from 37 percent yesterday to over 50 percent today.

What economists said

"Good news for the Fed"

Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok, speaking to Bloomberg TV, stated, "The inflation data that fell short of expectations and strong unemployment claims are good news for the Fed, because there is still no upward inflation surprise. However, of course, there are still tariffs that have not yet come into effect, and steps to be taken on this front could add up to a point to inflation in the next 12 months."

"The Fed may begin monetary easing due to the risk of a sharp slowdown"

Kay Haigh, co-head of the global fixed income investment and liquidity solutions unit at Goldman Sachs, stated that they expect the Fed's initial response to be cautious, saying, "A sharper-than-expected slowdown in the economy still poses a risk, and this situation could lead to the Fed restarting its monetary easing cycle."

"The tariff shock has not yet reflected in prices"

Brian Coulton, chief economist at credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, also drew attention to the tariffs and made the following assessment:

"The decline in core inflation in March will certainly be welcomed by the Fed, especially since it is evident in both the core goods and services components. However, we know that companies made large amounts of imports before the tariff increases in January and February; therefore, the shock that tariffs will bring to consumer goods prices has not yet fully reflected."

Immediately after the inflation data was released, Bitcoin, which exceeded 82,400 dollars, dropped below 81,000 dollars with the news that the White House increased the customs tariff imposed on China to 145%. The price is hovering around 80,400 dollars at the moment the news was published.

Don't forget to watch the release of the US inflation data that we conducted with the contributions of Gate TR:

Published: April 10, 2025 18:41