The CEO of the crypto analytics company CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, claimed in a recent statement that the bull cycle in the Bitcoin market has ended. In his assessment based on on-chain data, Ju noted that the current market dynamics now indicate a bear market.
In his statement, he first drew attention to the concept of "Realized Cap" ( Realized Market Value ). This metric considers the entry of Bitcoin into a wallet as a purchase and its exit as a sale. This data allows for the calculation of the average cost per wallet, and when multiplied by the amount of BTC in the wallets, it provides the opportunity to measure the actual capital entering the market. Therefore, Realized Cap represents the total capital entering Bitcoin through on-chain activities.
In contrast, the market cap (Market Cap) is often misunderstood because it is based solely on the latest trading price on exchanges. Ju emphasized that even a small purchase can significantly drive prices up during periods of low selling pressure, but under high selling pressure, even large purchases may fail to move the price. As an example, it showed that despite high volume transactions when Bitcoin was trading close to 100 thousand dollars, the price remained stable.
According to Ju's analysis, to understand whether the market is in a healthy upward trend, it is necessary to look at the relationship between Realized Cap and Market Cap. If Realized Cap is increasing while Market Cap is stable or declining, this indicates that prices are not rising despite new capital inflows, meaning a bear market is dominant. In the opposite case, where prices are rising with small capital inflows, this is considered a sign of a bull market.
Ju stated that the currently observed data clearly indicates a return to the initial situation, and that large capital inflows have not been able to raise prices, which is a classic indicator of a bear market. The CEO mentioned that the selling pressure could decrease at some point, but historically, such market reversals have lasted at least six months, therefore a short-term rally expectation is not realistic.
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Expert CEO said, "The Bull in Bitcoin is Over," explaining the reason and the time needed for it to start again!
The CEO of the crypto analytics company CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, claimed in a recent statement that the bull cycle in the Bitcoin market has ended. In his assessment based on on-chain data, Ju noted that the current market dynamics now indicate a bear market.
In his statement, he first drew attention to the concept of "Realized Cap" ( Realized Market Value ). This metric considers the entry of Bitcoin into a wallet as a purchase and its exit as a sale. This data allows for the calculation of the average cost per wallet, and when multiplied by the amount of BTC in the wallets, it provides the opportunity to measure the actual capital entering the market. Therefore, Realized Cap represents the total capital entering Bitcoin through on-chain activities.
In contrast, the market cap (Market Cap) is often misunderstood because it is based solely on the latest trading price on exchanges. Ju emphasized that even a small purchase can significantly drive prices up during periods of low selling pressure, but under high selling pressure, even large purchases may fail to move the price. As an example, it showed that despite high volume transactions when Bitcoin was trading close to 100 thousand dollars, the price remained stable.
According to Ju's analysis, to understand whether the market is in a healthy upward trend, it is necessary to look at the relationship between Realized Cap and Market Cap. If Realized Cap is increasing while Market Cap is stable or declining, this indicates that prices are not rising despite new capital inflows, meaning a bear market is dominant. In the opposite case, where prices are rising with small capital inflows, this is considered a sign of a bull market.
Ju stated that the currently observed data clearly indicates a return to the initial situation, and that large capital inflows have not been able to raise prices, which is a classic indicator of a bear market. The CEO mentioned that the selling pressure could decrease at some point, but historically, such market reversals have lasted at least six months, therefore a short-term rally expectation is not realistic.