On March 18, the BTC price failed to hit the $85,000 resistance level again on March 17, and its intraday highs have been hovering in the $84,000 to $85,200 range for the past five days, but it failed to gain a foothold above $84,600. As the Fed's FOMC meeting (Intrerest Rate decision to be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 20) approaches, the market has entered a "no man's land" - the price Fluctuation is full of uncertainty and the Bull vs Bear battle intensifies. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, and there is only a 1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Although CPI (2.8%) and PCE (2.5%-2.6%) are still above the 2% target, the latest data does not meet the threshold for an immediate rate cut; The unemployment rate (4.1%) and GDP (2.3% in Q4 2024) still show resilience. Polymarket predicts that the Fed will end quantitative tightening by April 30 or pave the way for a summer rate cut. Technically, BTC needs to break through and hold at $85,000 and turn it into support. The recapture of the 200-day EMA by the daily candlestick is a key signal, and the moving average has broken for the first time since August 2024. If Shorts suppresses the $85,000 resistance level, it may test below $78,000, and the important support range is at $74,000 (high before 2024) to $70,530 (daily candlestick order block). A break below $69,272 would wipe out all of Trump's gains. The BTCSpot ETF saw a net inflow of $274 million on March 17, the highest since February 4, or provide ammunition for longs. Analyst views are divided. Anonymous analyst SuperBitcoinBro noted that in the worst-case scenario, BTC could test the $71,300 to $73,800 support band. Analyst Nebraskangooner believes that the FOMC outcome is unpredictable, and BTC needs to regain $86,250 to confirm short-term bullish, otherwise it may retrace $70,000. Powell held a press conference after announcing the Intrerest Rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 20, and the market focused on his stance on inflation and the path of interest rate cuts.
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Key price levels analysis before the Fed interest rate decision, BTC sticking below $85,000
On March 18, the BTC price failed to hit the $85,000 resistance level again on March 17, and its intraday highs have been hovering in the $84,000 to $85,200 range for the past five days, but it failed to gain a foothold above $84,600. As the Fed's FOMC meeting (Intrerest Rate decision to be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 20) approaches, the market has entered a "no man's land" - the price Fluctuation is full of uncertainty and the Bull vs Bear battle intensifies. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, and there is only a 1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Although CPI (2.8%) and PCE (2.5%-2.6%) are still above the 2% target, the latest data does not meet the threshold for an immediate rate cut; The unemployment rate (4.1%) and GDP (2.3% in Q4 2024) still show resilience. Polymarket predicts that the Fed will end quantitative tightening by April 30 or pave the way for a summer rate cut. Technically, BTC needs to break through and hold at $85,000 and turn it into support. The recapture of the 200-day EMA by the daily candlestick is a key signal, and the moving average has broken for the first time since August 2024. If Shorts suppresses the $85,000 resistance level, it may test below $78,000, and the important support range is at $74,000 (high before 2024) to $70,530 (daily candlestick order block). A break below $69,272 would wipe out all of Trump's gains. The BTCSpot ETF saw a net inflow of $274 million on March 17, the highest since February 4, or provide ammunition for longs. Analyst views are divided. Anonymous analyst SuperBitcoinBro noted that in the worst-case scenario, BTC could test the $71,300 to $73,800 support band. Analyst Nebraskangooner believes that the FOMC outcome is unpredictable, and BTC needs to regain $86,250 to confirm short-term bullish, otherwise it may retrace $70,000. Powell held a press conference after announcing the Intrerest Rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 20, and the market focused on his stance on inflation and the path of interest rate cuts.