Is the crypto world still concerned about Trump's tariff policy: Has the story of 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf' gradually desensitized the crypto world?

When chatting with many OGs, they all sigh that the market changes in 24/25 are unpredictable, and many veterans fail to make money. An interesting point is that 17/18 was a 'community-driven market', where a new asset issuance paradigm created wealth effects; 20/21 is a 'technology-driven market', where new asset plays (Decentralized Finance/Non-fungible Token) created wealth effects; 24/25 is a 'policy-driven market' (some also say this is 'policy bull', hahaha), where market changes depend on policy changes.

This article mainly focuses on recent policy-driven events, or rather, the impact of policy-related public information on coin prices (mainly discussing the magnitude), as for the memes posted by Trump and his wife, they do not fall into this category.

Before that, there was a very important assumption, that people would become numb to signals that appear "continuously" for a long time (reasons include being worn down/monitored by various strategies, people's perception becoming dull, etc.). Just like facing the sea every day, over time, the excitement of seeing the sea will decrease, even becoming accustomed to it (economically known as diminishing marginal utility).

After the ETF is approved in 2024, in addition to the traditional technical indicators such as funding rates, lending rates, volatility, and K-line on traditional exchanges, the market will also consider the net inflow/outflow data of the ETF on the next day as an important reference indicator for today's price trend. If the net inflow/outflow data of ETF is considered as public information, how does the market view this data? Will this data significantly affect the price?

Taking ETH as an example, the price of ETH is positively correlated with the inflow/outflow of ETFs (if there is a net inflow the previous day, the probability of a price increase the next day is higher, and vice versa)

Does the currency circle still care about Trump's tariff policy? Has the story of "The Wolf is Coming" made the currency circle gradually desensitized? (https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-ddab6fafeb610332ad00368039c1e47d)

The correlation between the price trend of BTC and the net inflow/outflow of ETFs is not so obvious, especially after Trump's victory in November, the predictive correlation of this part of the trend has gradually weakened.

Does the cryptocurrency community still care about Trump's tariff policy: Has the story of 'the wolf is coming' gradually desensitized the cryptocurrency community?(https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-c4e824c6dcf73821c010eef3f94bb573)

Given that data is more intuitive and readable, this article does not show regression analysis. Overall, the market's sensitivity to public market information (referring to this intuitive market information) will gradually decrease, but this does not mean that this information is invalid.

Below is a summary of Trump's recent remarks (tweets) on tariffs:

February 1, 2025: Trump signs an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a lower 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada. The tariffs will take effect on February 4, 2025.

On February 13, 2025: Trump announced a 25% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum products, scheduled to be implemented on March 12, 2025. Starting from April 2, 2025, 'equivalent' tariffs will be imposed on all foreign imported goods.

March 4, 2025: The tariffs previously announced by Trump on Canada and Mexico officially took effect at 12:01 am Eastern Time in the United States.

March 7, 2025: Trump announced new tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber, expected to be implemented starting on March 11, 2025. (This day also coincides with the White House Crypto Summit)

March 11, 2025: Trump announced that he will impose an additional 25% tariff (up to 50%) on steel and aluminum from Canada, expected to take effect on March 12. In addition, Trump also demanded that Canada revoke tariffs on American dairy products.

Directly upload data:

Does the circle still care about Trump's tariff policy? Has the story of 'the wolf is coming' gradually desensitized the circle of coins? (https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-b631dea90a98de4d59e76eaf34a48690)

Note: Some believe that the drop on March 7th may still be related to the market's excessively high expectations for 'Bitcoin reserves'.

As the saying goes, once, twice, three times, and exhausted. Combining the price fluctuations of BTC and ETH at these time points. From the data, it can be seen that the first (February 1st) and the third (March 4th) had the biggest reactions to the tariff issue, while the second (February 13th) and the fourth (March 7th) had smaller reactions. Even the fifth time (March 11th) has seen some increase, but does this mean that the market has become desensitized to Trump's "tariff tricks"?

Analysis of the inflow/outflow of ETFs:


As early as before March 1st, large-scale outflows of BTC ETF have already occurred, speculating that it is for hedging or exiting, so traders who are bearish on the market or resistant to tariff fluctuations have gradually left. This may explain why existing ETF holders are less likely to be affected by tariff issues. After all, those who wanted to withdraw have already left.

Next is the analysis of March 4th and 7th. Although the tariff imposition on March 4th was within market expectations (Trump had mentioned in February that there would be a round of tariff sanctions in early March), the market reacted more intensely due to the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, especially the trend of BTC was even more volatile than on February 1st. The tariff comments on March 7th also had an impact, but that day was also the day of the Bitcoin summit and the announcement of strategic reserve news, where market expectations were greater than the actual policy outcomes.

Just as people living by the river may ignore the sound of water, people may feel numb and indifferent to continuous long-term information. However, the issue of Trump's tariffs has not reached the threshold of continuous long-term exposure. The reaction on March 11th may be a superficial manifestation of 'desensitization,' but the deeper reason is more likely due to the flight of safe-haven funds, leaving behind traders who have already 'priced in' the 'tariffs'.

The market is not numb and desensitized, it is all carefully calculated risk.

So do you still care what Trump said?