AI Weekly Highlights Report (01.31 - 02.07)

You are reading the weekly industry highlights report generated for you by the Gate.io AI Lab. Check out the most noteworthy market trends and important events from last week, and get investment analysis and financial strategies recommended for you.

Word count: 9116 words | Reading time 12.3 minutes.

Table of Contents:

  1. Market Trends
  2. Analysis of fund availability and price fluctuations
  3. Hot Topics
  4. Main Events
  5. Global Policies
  6. Investment Analysis

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached $1.23 trillion, an increase of 2.49% compared to the previous period. The trading volume of exchanges increased by 1.23% compared to the previous period, reaching $1.08 trillion. The price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $98,000, and the dominant trend is still consolidation.

According to the Gate.io Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "panic", with a fear and greed index of 44, indicating an overall pessimistic market sentiment.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 09pm UTC+8, Feb 07

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down, with sustained inflationary pressures. The initial value of the euro area's CPI in January was 8.5%, higher than the expected 8.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, in line with expectations. The CPI for January in the United States was 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, higher than the expected 6.2%. The probability that the Fed will maintain the interest rate unchanged in March is 85.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 14.5%.

The producer price index reflects the upstream cost pressure. The euro area's January PPI was -3.8% monthly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. The US January PPI was 0.7% monthly, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, higher than the expected 5.4%. Upstream cost pressure is transmitted to final consumption, pushing up inflation levels.

The Purchasing Managers' Index is a leading economic indicator. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for February came in at 48.5, lower than the expected 49.0, marking the seventh consecutive month in contraction territory. The US manufacturing PMI for February ended at 47.7, lower than the expected 47.8, reaching its lowest level in nearly three years. Economic activity continues to slow down.

Overall, the high inflation and economic slowdown macro situation has intensified the dilemma of monetary policy. The risk of excessive interest rate hikes suppressing the economy faces the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, while they also need to continue to contain inflation expectations. This uncertainty has increased the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

1.3 Economic Calendar

Analysis:

  1. The January CPI data in the United States is one of the most important economic data this week, which will reflect the level of inflation. The market expects the year-on-year CPI in January to be 2.90%, with a monthly rate of 0.30%, and the core CPI year-on-year to be 3.10%, with a monthly rate of 0.30%. Inflation data will affect the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve.
  2. The annual PPI and monthly retail sales in January in the United States are also important economic data, which will reflect the situation of enterprise production and consumer spending. The initial claims for unemployment benefits reflect the employment market conditions. The import price index reflects import inflation pressure. These data will collectively influence the decision of the Federal Reserve.

2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Volatility

2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis

BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC in the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is approximately 2.78%.

Price Movement Analysis
Last week, the price of BTC fluctuated in the range of $97,000 to $105,000. The price increase was mainly driven by continued buying from institutional investors. The recent tense geopolitical situation is the main reason for the price drop.

Trading Volume Impact A significant increase in trading volume often indicates a significant price fluctuation. Last week, the daily average trading volume of BTC increased by about 20% compared to the previous week, indicating an increase in market activity. The increase in trading volume may also trigger further price increases.

Market Outlook Based on the analysis of comprehensive analysts and technical indicators, the market still maintains a bullish sentiment towards BTC. If it can effectively break through the $106,000 mark, the BTC price is expected to usher in a new round of upward trend. However, we also need to be cautious about the downward pressure that geopolitical risks may bring.

2.2. Fund Analysis

Bitcoin fund flow According to the data, the recent net inflow of funds for Bitcoin is showing a negative value, indicating that funds are flowing out. On February 7th, the net outflow amount was as high as 393 million US dollars, reflecting cautious market sentiment. However, the overall outflow of funds slowed down last week, suggesting that investors may be seeking new entry opportunities.

Solana Capital Flow Both SOL and SOLV tokens in the Solana ecosystem are showing net outflows of funds. Among them, SOL had a net outflow of 801 million US dollars on February 7, and SOLV had a net outflow of 800,800 US dollars on the same day. Continued outflows of capital may exacerbate downward pressure on the Solana ecosystem.

Algorand Capital Flow Algorand's ecosystem token ALGO had a good net inflow of funds this week. Data shows that on February 7th, ALGO had a net inflow of $3.012 million, reflecting investors' favor for the public chain ecosystem. The good funding situation is expected to support the rise of ALGO's price.

Fetch.ai Fund Flow The net inflow of funds for Fetch.ai's ecosystem token FET this week is also impressive. On February 7th, FET had a net inflow of $803,400, indicating that investors have high expectations for the future of the public chain. The price of FET may be boosted by positive factors in terms of funding.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

The flow of smart money often predicts the market trend. By analyzing the changes in large block transaction volume, we can discern the movement of institutional funds.

BTC: Recently, the trading volume of large BTC orders has increased, indicating that institutional funds are flowing in. This means that the bullish momentum is relatively strong, and there is room for further growth in the future. However, the selling pressure cannot be ignored, so it is expected that BTC will maintain a range-bound trend.

ETH: Compared with BTC, the large single transaction volume of ETH does not change significantly. This indicates that institutions are more cautious about ETH. The future market of ETH may continue to be in a oscillating pattern, with insufficient upward momentum.

SOL: The large single transaction volume of SOL has recently increased significantly, indicating that institutional funds are heavily involved. This indicates that there may be a wave of upward trends in the future market of SOL. However, the upward potential depends on the subsequent fund flow.

DOGE: The large transaction volume of DOGE is continuously decreasing, reflecting the withdrawal of institutional funds. This means that there is significant pressure on the future market of DOGE and the risk of a decline is increasing.

Overall, the flow of smart money indicates that BTC and SOL may rise in the future, while ETH and DOGE face downward pressure. However, the movement of large funds also needs to be analyzed in combination with other technical and fundamental factors.

3. Hot Topics

Here is a small special report compiled according to your request:

🔥 Berachain's explosion triggers a seismic effect in the coin circle, and its unique third-generation token model becomes the focus of attention 🔥

🚀 After the launch of Berachain mainnet, the price skyrocketed by nearly 700%, achieving a "legend" in the crypto world 🚀

Berachain is a high-performance EVM-compatible Layer1 blockchain that adopts an innovative Proof-of-Liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism. Recently, after the launch of the Berachain mainnet, its token BERA experienced a crazy surge, with a nearly 700% increase within 24 hours, attracting widespread attention from global investors.

According to relevant data, as of February 7, 2025, BERA's price reached $8.03, with a 24-hour increase of 702.69%. BERA's total market value also exceeded $0.834 billion, jumping to the top 100 of the cryptocurrency market value rankings.

**Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis said, "Berachain's unique third-generation token model and PoL consensus mechanism set it apart, and I am optimistic about its long-term prospects."

🌟 The three-token model is the biggest highlight of Berachain, expected to solve the problems of inflation and cold start 🌟

Berachain adopts an innovative three-generation token model, including BERA, ETHFI, and BERRI. Among them, BERA is the main token used for transaction fees and staking; ETHFI is a token linked to Ethereum, aimed at attracting users from the Ethereum ecosystem; BERRI is a deflationary token used to reward validators and liquidity providers.

**Berachain founder John Wick explained, "Our three-token model can effectively solve the difficulties of inflation and cold start, allowing Berachain to stand undefeated in competition."

💥 Airdrops and NFT distributions have triggered a market frenzy, causing a sensation on social media 💥

To celebrate the launch of the mainnet, Berachain also distributed airdrops and NFTs to community members in a big way. This news has triggered a huge response on social media, with discussions about Berachain on platforms such as Twitter and X skyrocketing.

In the latest video, well-known Crypto YouTuber Ivan Yearn commented on the event, saying: "The airdrop and NFT distribution by Berachain are undoubtedly a successful marketing campaign, as they have not only ignited enthusiasm within the community, but also brought great exposure to the project."

🔭 Promising Future? Can Berachain Continue its Magical Performance Worth Anticipation? 🔭

Despite Berachain's remarkable achievements, whether it can continue this magical performance remains to be tested by time. However, with its unique three-generation token model and PoL consensus mechanism, Berachain has indeed brought new possibilities to the cryptocurrency world.

Analyst Zhu Xiao pointed out, "Berachain's design concept is very forward-looking, and if it can steadily and continuously innovate, the future will be infinitely bright."

4. Main Events

The following are the Top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days, arranged in reverse chronological order:

Bitcoin Dominance Reaches 71% 2025-02-07 Bitcoin's dominance reaching 71% is considered an important signal for the start of another altcoin season. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that in the past three times when Bitcoin's dominance reached around 71%, there was a subsequent decline and token performance would outperform Bitcoin, triggering the altcoin season. Currently, Bitcoin's dominance is at 60.3%. If it eventually breaks through 71% and gets rejected, it may trigger a new round of altcoin market.

Pectra upgrade testnet fork date announcement 2025-02-07 The Ethereum Pectra upgrade plan will first go live on the Holesky and Sepolia testnets. The Holesky testnet will fork on February 24th, and the Sepolia testnet will fork on March 5th. If the Sepolia testnet fork goes smoothly, Ethereum developers will confirm the Pectra mainnet launch date on March 6th. Pectra will bring a series of improvements to Ethereum, such as wallet experience optimization, and an increase in the maximum amount of ETH validators can stake.

Meme In presale exceeds $3.5 million 2025-02-07 The Meme In token pre-sale has exceeded $3.5 million. The project offers users different investment schemes for Meme coins with different risk preferences through four different indexes: Titan, Moonshot, MidCap, and Frenzy. Purchasing MEMEX tokens during the pre-sale period can earn up to 1278% annualized rewards. The team plans to list on major exchanges after the pre-sale ends.

Strategy reaffirms the mission of 'Bitcoin' 2025-02-07 After MicroStrategy renamed to Strategy, founder Michael Saylor reiterated that "Strategy is Bitcoin". The company holds 471,107 bitcoins, worth over $46.3 billion. Saylor has always been a staunch supporter of Bitcoin, and Strategy is gradually becoming a Bitcoin-centric company.

Analysts predict the future trend of Bitcoin 2025-02-07 Analyst Bob Loukas predicts that after Bitcoin breaks through $106,000 again, it will not "look back" and will start a new bullish cycle. He believes that Bitcoin will continue to rise after hitting bottom at the end of February. Another analyst expects Bitcoin to be considered overheated in the range of $140,000 to $200,000, with a risk of profit-taking.

FDIC expects US banks to expand cooperation with cryptocurrencies 2025-02-07 The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation expects that under the leadership of the Trump administration, US banks will expand their cooperation with cryptocurrencies. The agency plans to modify its banking guidelines to allow banks to engage in certain cryptocurrency activities without prior regulatory approval, such as providing custody services and tokenized deposits, to bridge the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies.

Pepe's MIND presale exceeds 5 million US dollars 2025-02-07 The pre-sale of Pepe's MIND token, which combines AI trading technology with Meme culture, has raised over 5 million dollars. The core of the project is a self-evolving AI agent that can analyze the market, manage wallets, create tokens, etc. MIND token holders can get AI-generated investment opportunities and passive income. The pre-sale token price is 0.0032662 dollars.

Bonk announces the destruction of 20.25 trillion tokens 2025-02-06 Meme project Bonk announced the imminent destruction of 202.5 trillion Bonk tokens, equivalent to $36.45 million. Previously, Bonk attracted attention in the Meme coin field due to its unique token issuance model and community marketing.

Tether CEO denies launching its own blockchain network 2025-02-06 Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino denied on social media that Tether intends to launch its own blockchain network. Earlier, there were reports that Tether planned to issue tokens on its own blockchain network.

Santiment: Bitcoin whales continue to increase their holdings 2025-02-06 According to Santiment data, the number of wallets holding 100+ bitcoins increased by 135 in February, while the number of wallets holding less than 100 bitcoins decreased by 138,680. Analysts believe this is an ideal environment for the increase in Bitcoin market value, but it may take several weeks or months to show its impact.

Oneness Labs acquires equity of Lingkong Games 2025-02-06 Oneness Lab announced the acquisition of developer Lingkong Games and strategic investment in it. "Showa American Story" developed by Lingkong Games is a game that combines Japanese aesthetics with post-apocalyptic American storytelling. Its derivative cryptocurrency SHOWA has a market value of over 36 million US dollars within 20 days.

MicroStrategy has been renamed to Strategy 2025-02-06 The world's largest Bitcoin financial company, MicroStrategy, has been renamed to Strategy. The official statement says that this brand simplification reflects the natural evolution of the company's focus and broad appeal. The new logo includes the letter "B" representing Bitcoin strategy.

ChatGPT search function is now available to all users 2025-02-06 OpenAI announced that the ChatGPT search feature is now available to all users without registration. Previously, the ChatGPT search feature was only available to paying users.

StarkWare launches a $4 million venture capital fund 2025-02-06 StarkWare announced the launch of a $4 million venture capital fund to accelerate blockchain innovation in Africa. The fund is led by Kheireddine.

5. Global Policies

According to the news from January 31 to February 7, 2025, the following are the new political dynamics, economic policies or regulations related to the global cryptocurrency industry, as well as the analysis of their impact on the industry and the market:

US Government Policies

1. The U.S. government is studying the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)

Source of the message:

  • The newly appointed US Secretary of Cryptocurrency and Artificial Intelligence, David Sachs, hinted at a press conference that the Trump administration is considering establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve. The Congressional Research Service released a report proposing policy issues such as allowing cryptocurrency companies direct access to the Federal Reserve's master account.

Impact analysis:

  • If the United States establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve, every $1 billion in funds entering could potentially drive up the Bitcoin market value by as much as $20 billion.
  • This will mark the formal recognition of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by the US government, which will have a significant impact on the long-term value and status of Bitcoin.
  • Allow cryptocurrency companies direct access to the Fed's master account, further integrating the traditional financial and cryptocurrency industries.

2. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) expects banks to expand their cooperation with cryptocurrencies

Message Source:

  • The FDIC expects that under the leadership of the Trump administration, US banks will expand their cooperation with cryptocurrencies.
  • The FDIC is planning to modify its banking guidelines to allow banks to engage in certain cryptocurrency activities without the need for prior regulatory approval.

Impact analysis:

  • This measure aims to bridge the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies, helping banks offer customers more investment choices.
  • Banks participating in cryptocurrency businesses will provide institutional investors with more channels to enter the cryptocurrency market.
  • The cryptocurrency industry will gain more compliance and regulatory recognition, which is beneficial for long-term healthy development.

Policies in other countries and regions

1. Brazilian congressman introduces a new draft law proposing to allow Brazilian funds to invest in cryptocurrency.

Message Source:

  • Brazilian congressman Adriana Ventura has proposed a new draft law suggesting the approval of funds investing in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin purchases.

Impact analysis:

  • If the bill is passed, it will meet the demands and interests of Brazilian investment funds for cryptocurrencies.
  • Promote financial innovation and competition, and provide a regulatory safe environment for funds to diversify their investment portfolios.
  • Will bring more institutional funds into the Brazilian cryptocurrency market.

2. The Bank of England may relax monetary policy, which is good for the cryptocurrency market.

Message Source:

  • Analysts predict that the Bank of England will gradually cut interest rates in 2025, due to reasons including declining inflation, sluggish economic growth, and a cooling labor market.
  • The statement from the Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, and the economic forecasts for February will be important references for interest rate decisions.

Impact analysis:

  • If the Bank of England relaxes its monetary policy, it will relieve pressure on traditional financial markets and be conducive to the inflow of funds into the risk asset market.
  • As a new alternative investment, cryptocurrencies may benefit from a loose monetary environment.
  • But at the same time, we also need to be vigilant about the risks of economic recession that may be caused by rapid deflation.

Summary: Policies and Regulations

At the beginning of 2025, major global economies are showing a more open and inclusive attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation. The US government is actively exploring the inclusion of Bitcoin in the national strategic reserves and encouraging closer cooperation between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency industry. Other countries such as Brazil are also promoting related regulations, allowing investment funds to invest in cryptocurrencies. The expected monetary policy easing by the Bank of England may also have a favorable impact on the cryptocurrency market. These changes in policies and regulations reflect the increasing global attention to cryptocurrencies and are expected to accelerate institutional funds into this field, creating a favorable environment for the long-term healthy development of the industry.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendation

Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investing involves risks and caution is advised when entering the market.

6.2 Investment Strategy

This Week's Popular Token Analysis

This week's popular tokens include FARTCOIN, AIXBT, COOKIE, VIRTUAL, etc. From a technical perspective, FARTCOIN and AIXBT, as AI concept coins, have benefited from the continuous boom of large models such as ChatGPT, and have high trading activity. COOKIE, as a new AI agent index platform, has also seen a rise in token prices. VIRTUAL, as a virtual world concept coin, has been active in the metaverse boom. Overall, this week's popular tokens are mainly concentrated in the forefront of technology such as AI and the metaverse.

Trading Bot Strategy Analysis

From the data of the trading robot, the contract grid strategy performs well on high-risk and high-return currencies, such as CRV_USDT, BAN_USDT, with high profitability but also high volatility. The spot Martingale strategy has relatively stable returns on low-risk currencies, such as QTUM_USDT. The contract grid strategy also performs well on some popular currencies such as DOGE. In general, high-risk and high-return strategies require strict risk control, while low-risk strategies offer relatively stable returns. This week, the quantitative strategy shows a preference for high risk.

6.3. Financial Investment Products

  1. Yubi Bao Yu Bao helps match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After purchasing Yu Bao, the system will determine whether the borrowing is successful and the interest rate for the hour based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing needs at each hour. Successful borrowing will earn interest for that hour.

Yu'E Bao supports users to customize the interest rate. Users can set the minimum lending rate when subscribing. After the successful lending at the whole point, the income is calculated based on the determined interest rate. Yu'E Bao supports flexible deposit and withdrawal, with 24-hour support for anytime subscription and redemption, and the redemption can be credited immediately.

The total amount of USDT in Yield Bao is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized yield of 16.65% + 8.87%.

  1. Financial Management Treasure The Wealth Management Center is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed-term, and all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of types of digital currency financial products.

  1. Structured Financial Products Gate.io structural financing is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. It is generally determined by comparing the performance of the underlying asset with the specified reference price during the investment period to determine the level of settlement yield. It can be divided into two types: capital-protected and aggressive.

4. Market Interest Rate

Annotation:

  • TradFi data comes from publicly available market data in the United States.
  • CeFi and DeFi data come from centralized and decentralized cryptocurrency platforms respectively.
  • Due to real-time data changes, the above data may be outdated and is for reference only.

Disclaimer:

  • The data and analysis in this report are purely personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice.
  • Investing carries risks, and entering the market requires caution.

6.4. Technical Analysis: ETH Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Backtest

Backtesting ETH according to the Bollinger Bands trading strategy, with an initial capital of 100,000 USDT. The specific backtesting results are as follows:

  • Backtesting period: January 1, 2024 to February 7, 2025
  • Final yield: 18.76%
  • Maximum Drawdown: -12.35%
  • Annualized Volatility: 32.21%
  • Total number of trades: 46 times
  • Profitable trading times: 24 times
  • Number of losing trades: 22 times

Data Analysis:

  1. Yield Analysis:
    • The final yield is 18.76%, with mediocre performance.
  • The annualized yield is approximately 9.38%, lower than the annualized yield of ETH for the same period.
  1. Risk Analysis:
    • The maximum drawdown rate is -12.35%, and the risk is controllable.
  • The annualized volatility is 32.21%, and the volatility is high.
  1. Trading Frequency Analysis:
    • The total number of transactions is 46 times, and the activity level is relatively high. The number of profitable trades is slightly more than the number of losing trades.

Advantages:

  • The trading strategy is simple and clear, and the operation is easy.
  • The risk is controllable, and the maximum drawdown is within an acceptable range.
  • High trading activity, able to fully utilize market fluctuations.

Cons:

  • The yield is generally lower than the overall increase of ETH.
  • High volatility, with an annualized volatility of 32.21%.
  • The strategy lacks flexibility and cannot adapt to the rapid changes in the market.

Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy is relatively low-risk but with average returns. In actual operation, it can be combined with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis, and the strategy can be adjusted in a timely manner based on market changes to potentially achieve better returns.

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The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
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