Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief executive and chief strategist at QI Research, warned this week that the U.S. may be in the worst stages of a recession and that the number of U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings has surged in recent months, similar to the 2008 financial tsunami. (Synopsis: U.S. interest rate cut in December? Core PCE hit a new half-year high in October, focusing on Black Friday sales) (Background supplement: How to judge the US recession? Please take these 15 key indicators) With inflation data slowly falling, the Fed has fallen 3 yards since the start of the interest rate cut cycle in September, and the market is now generally optimistic that the Fed will achieve a soft landing, and the fear of an imminent recession due to the trigger of the Sam rule has clearly subsided in July and August. However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, warned in an interview with KITCO this week that "the United States may be in the worst stages of recession right now." A former adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, she said the number of corporate bankruptcy filings in the United States has surged in recent months, similar to what happened during the 2008 financial tsunami. "We've seen 19 companies with $50 million or more in debt go bankrupt. The highest level after the pandemic is 23. The rate at which the number of corporate bankruptcies has surged back to the time of the financial crisis. We're also seeing small-scale bankruptcies that are trickling down into personal bankruptcies because American households have too many credit cards, cars, personal loans, not to mention mortgages." DiMartino Booth further added on Tuesday that the final number of large bankruptcies (with more than $50 million in debt) in November was 22, the highest level since the post-pandemic peak of 23 in August 2023, and also on par with the 23 recorded in October 2008, which means that nine months after the global financial crisis hit that year, we saw the number of corporate bankruptcies rise at this rate. The U.S. recession could begin in April 2024 DiMartino Booth further pointed to the recent sharp downward revision of private sector employment data, which actually lost 28,000 jobs in the private sector in October, showing a worse employment situation than previously reported, and she also pointed out that the government's downward revision to employment data has continued since January 2022 and has become a systemic problem. She also pointed out that during the Trump administration, the United States will release more "negative data" to further reveal the extent of the recession. "We know that most government statisticians are very left-leaning in nature, and that's probably one of the reasons we don't see bad data coming up." But going forward, they will be more willing to let negative data stain the Trump administration. We will realize that we are in a recession. Which brings us to the next question – when are we going to get out of the recession." She believes that the turning point for the employment data to turn negative is in April 2024, which means that the recession may have started as early as then, and the average recession usually lasts about 11 months, so she expects a recovery to begin in 2025. 2025 Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively Since Trump is likely to see more negative data after taking office, she believes this means that the Fed may take more rate cuts in 2025 to deal with a recession. Her top three risks for 2025 include: how the recession and markets will respond, how the Fed will respond when it taxes Trump, and the impact of Deflation on the housing market. Read more: Fed November FOMC meeting: The pace of rate cuts may slow or even pause, neutral Intrerest Rate outlook calls for investors to adopt a defensive posture In light of this, DiMartino Booth recommends a defensive stance in the current economic environment. Recommending investing in "companies that will continue to pay dividends no matter what happens elsewhere in the world" and "raising money through U.S. Treasuries," she is also bullish on gold, which she sees as "a logical target for building diversification and defensive positions." When asked if she could invest in BTC, she responded that investors can own BTC yes or Nvidia shares, which are personal choices, but she still believes that BTC is a speculative instrument that is currently very volatile, and the recent rally is like taking steroids, so until it is stable, she thinks it is stupid to discuss BTC as a store of value. Similarly, she is not optimistic that the US government will eventually sell the gold to build up the BTC National Strategic Reserve. Related reports BTCBull Market dilemma: recession worries and lack of innovation have peaked? Analysts warn: Any Rebound is fake, mass goods fall predicts recession Goldman Sachs confidently shouts "don't worry too much" U.S. unemployment rate, Sam's Law founder: this time may be able to avoid recession Goldman Sachs refutes the "recession theory": 3 reasons not to worry too much about the U.S. unemployment rate rise "The U.S. economy is in a deep recession? Analyst: The surge of bankrupt enterprises is like a financial tsunami" This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
Is the US economy in a severe recession? Analyst: Bankruptcies soaring like during the financial crisis
Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief executive and chief strategist at QI Research, warned this week that the U.S. may be in the worst stages of a recession and that the number of U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings has surged in recent months, similar to the 2008 financial tsunami. (Synopsis: U.S. interest rate cut in December? Core PCE hit a new half-year high in October, focusing on Black Friday sales) (Background supplement: How to judge the US recession? Please take these 15 key indicators) With inflation data slowly falling, the Fed has fallen 3 yards since the start of the interest rate cut cycle in September, and the market is now generally optimistic that the Fed will achieve a soft landing, and the fear of an imminent recession due to the trigger of the Sam rule has clearly subsided in July and August. However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, warned in an interview with KITCO this week that "the United States may be in the worst stages of recession right now." A former adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, she said the number of corporate bankruptcy filings in the United States has surged in recent months, similar to what happened during the 2008 financial tsunami. "We've seen 19 companies with $50 million or more in debt go bankrupt. The highest level after the pandemic is 23. The rate at which the number of corporate bankruptcies has surged back to the time of the financial crisis. We're also seeing small-scale bankruptcies that are trickling down into personal bankruptcies because American households have too many credit cards, cars, personal loans, not to mention mortgages." DiMartino Booth further added on Tuesday that the final number of large bankruptcies (with more than $50 million in debt) in November was 22, the highest level since the post-pandemic peak of 23 in August 2023, and also on par with the 23 recorded in October 2008, which means that nine months after the global financial crisis hit that year, we saw the number of corporate bankruptcies rise at this rate. The U.S. recession could begin in April 2024 DiMartino Booth further pointed to the recent sharp downward revision of private sector employment data, which actually lost 28,000 jobs in the private sector in October, showing a worse employment situation than previously reported, and she also pointed out that the government's downward revision to employment data has continued since January 2022 and has become a systemic problem. She also pointed out that during the Trump administration, the United States will release more "negative data" to further reveal the extent of the recession. "We know that most government statisticians are very left-leaning in nature, and that's probably one of the reasons we don't see bad data coming up." But going forward, they will be more willing to let negative data stain the Trump administration. We will realize that we are in a recession. Which brings us to the next question – when are we going to get out of the recession." She believes that the turning point for the employment data to turn negative is in April 2024, which means that the recession may have started as early as then, and the average recession usually lasts about 11 months, so she expects a recovery to begin in 2025. 2025 Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively Since Trump is likely to see more negative data after taking office, she believes this means that the Fed may take more rate cuts in 2025 to deal with a recession. Her top three risks for 2025 include: how the recession and markets will respond, how the Fed will respond when it taxes Trump, and the impact of Deflation on the housing market. Read more: Fed November FOMC meeting: The pace of rate cuts may slow or even pause, neutral Intrerest Rate outlook calls for investors to adopt a defensive posture In light of this, DiMartino Booth recommends a defensive stance in the current economic environment. Recommending investing in "companies that will continue to pay dividends no matter what happens elsewhere in the world" and "raising money through U.S. Treasuries," she is also bullish on gold, which she sees as "a logical target for building diversification and defensive positions." When asked if she could invest in BTC, she responded that investors can own BTC yes or Nvidia shares, which are personal choices, but she still believes that BTC is a speculative instrument that is currently very volatile, and the recent rally is like taking steroids, so until it is stable, she thinks it is stupid to discuss BTC as a store of value. Similarly, she is not optimistic that the US government will eventually sell the gold to build up the BTC National Strategic Reserve. Related reports BTCBull Market dilemma: recession worries and lack of innovation have peaked? Analysts warn: Any Rebound is fake, mass goods fall predicts recession Goldman Sachs confidently shouts "don't worry too much" U.S. unemployment rate, Sam's Law founder: this time may be able to avoid recession Goldman Sachs refutes the "recession theory": 3 reasons not to worry too much about the U.S. unemployment rate rise "The U.S. economy is in a deep recession? Analyst: The surge of bankrupt enterprises is like a financial tsunami" This article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".