ChainCatcher 消息,加密分析师 Murphy 表示,从空间和时间两个维度分析链上数据,当前距离“熊底”已不再遥远。空间上以以上轮周期为例,在 2022 年 6 月 BTC 最低跌至 17,000 美元,与最终绝对底部价格 15,000 美元相差无几,意味着空间上已处于“熊底”区间,但真正走出并完成底部重构耗费整整 7 个月。
目前“空间”上与熊底已越来越近,但“时间”上还有相当的距离。重点观察信仰驱动买家(Conviction Buyers、下文简称 CB)的行为,其作为这个市场最聪明的钻石手,往往都会在下跌中买入,上涨后卖出。换一种理解则是,与其说他们经常在底部买入,还不如说底部经常由该部分买家构筑。截止 2 月信仰买家们已累计持仓达 348 万枚 BTC,再次刷新了本轮周期的最高记录。从今年 1 月至今大幅增持 122 万枚,该数据已远超上轮周期 5.19 事件、LUNA 暴雷及 FTX 暴雷时期。且当前 BTC 价格高于以上时间节点,“聪明的决策者们”在此时投入的资金也
虽然最终底部位置难以预测,但对于 CB 群体来说,其并不寄希望能一把梭哈在最低点,只要有足够的性价比他们便会不断买入,直至将所有超额供应全部吸收。当供需两端产生平衡,则形成熊市的底部区间,此后通过数月的共识重构,再走出新一轮的趋势。从历史数据来看,当前信仰驱动买家们所表现出的坚定和力量,已经完全符合“距离熊底并不遥远”的标准。
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