Under the tariff avalanche, the Trump Organization's overseas projects are really alive

Source: Forbes

Donald Trump is known to be keen on business, and he has made countless deals across the globe over the years. The Trump Organization has plastered the "Trump" name on hotels, golf courses and luxury apartment buildings in more than a dozen countries.

And the latest news: About a month after Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Trump as Trump's first international guest at the White House, the Trump Organization announced that it would build a commercial tower in Pune, India.

Trump's trade war on April 2 triggered an avalanche of new tariffs in the United States, which may impact his overseas business territory. This risk stems not from the tariffs themselves — the Trump Organization does not manufacture products overseas and ship them back to the United States — but from the enormous economic uncertainty and turmoil caused by their disruption of the global business order. "The impact is shifting from tariff shocks to demand destruction, which is more significant," Michael Bellisario, a Baird hospitality analyst, said earlier this week.

If this contraction in demand continues, the global travel industry will inevitably suffer, and the domestic travel industry in the United States is already showing signs of weakness due to Trump's tightening of immigration and student visa policies. "Travel is more fungible than other types of consumption," notes Bjorn Hanson, a hospitality consultant. If Trump's policies are to blame for the recession, his properties — such as golf courses in Scotland and Ireland — could be hit particularly hard.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, all 13 countries in which the Trump Organization does business, including two EU member states, have at least shown a willingness to negotiate with the United States, meaning they would benefit from a 90-day moratorium on some tariffs. The U.S. actually has a trade surplus with six of these countries, meaning they were initially hit by only a 10% minimum tax rate. In stark contrast, Mr. Trump does not own any title property in China, a country that is in a standoff with the United States over soaring tariffs and whose turmoil has caused unease in global markets.

Trump has largely avoided his own risks, which means that it will be his international partners, not himself, who will bear the brunge. The reason for this is that most "Trump Properties" are actually brand licensing and management agreements — property owners pay a fee in exchange for the branding rights to the Trump brand, sometimes with additional management services.

The most affected projects are likely to be those still in the planning or construction phase, such as those in the pipeline in Vietnam and Saudi Arabia, which may be delayed due to macroeconomic uncertainties. However, Hansen pointed out that Trump's business is unlikely to collapse anytime soon: "The people who hate Trump the most have long since stopped working with him for brand licensing." The downside risks behind this are actually quite limited. "

Below is a list of all countries where Donald Trump owns real estate or has signed a brand licensing agreement, and how they have been affected by the tariffs that Trump originally announced, which is currently suspended for 90 days. However, it should be noted that the "base tariff" of 10% still exists.

01 Vietnam "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 46%

The Trump Organization reached a partnership agreement with Kinh Bac City Development, a Vietnamese real estate giant, in October. The project will reportedly invest US$1.5 billion to develop golf courses, hotels and residential properties in Hung Yen province, southeast of Hanoi, but it is unclear whether ground has been broken. When Mr. Trump announced ultra-high tariffs on the Southeast Asian country, shares plunged 25 percent and did not partially recover until the news of the moratorium was announced. On April 4, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that Vietnam had offered to completely remove tariffs on U.S. goods in exchange for tariff exemptions.

02 Indonesia "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 32%

"The biggest, the best quality" is how billionaire Hary Tanoesoedibjo described his Bali resort plans in a 2017 interview with Forbes. Two years ago, his MNC Group announced a partnership with the Trump Organization to develop resorts in Bali and Lido. Harry shares Trump's fortune trajectory (real estate and media) and political ambitions, but Tano Sodib has yet to become Indonesia's leader.

Ten years on, although the Lido Trump-branded golf course has opened, the surrounding properties are still under construction. There are indications of a suspected death at the Bali project, which has reportedly left local construction workers in a difficult situation. Trump's latest financial filings did not show earnings from either program. As for the trade war, Reuters said that Indonesia has offered to increase U.S. energy and agricultural purchases in exchange for a deal to reduce tariffs.

03 India "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 26%

The world's most populous country also has the largest number of Trump projects outside the United States. Forbes estimates that Trump will make nearly a million dollars in 2023 from licensing the Bombay and Gurgaon towers, though the Trump-named towers in Kolkata and Pune appear to have brought in no revenue. The Trump Organization's official website also lists a number of projects as "coming soon" – including a commercial real estate plan for Pune, which was announced just last month. The Indian government, an ally of Mr. Trump, has not yet retaliated against US tariffs – he is reportedly seeking to negotiate tariff reductions.

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In 2018, the golden-clad Trump Tower in Mumbai was under construction.

04 Korea "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 25%

South Korea has opted for a negotiated solution to the tariff issue. "Their top team has flown to the U.S. and it's looking good." Trump wrote in a tweet on his social media Truth Social that on the same day, tariffs on South Korean imports went into effect (and were then quickly suspended). For all his skepticism about the value of the presence of U.S. troops in South Korea, Mr. Trump has deep ties to South Korea: In the '90s, he licensed the right to use his name to six buildings built by Daewoo in three cities, including Seoul, a chaebol that later collapsed in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. The latest financial disclosures indicate that the deal did not generate revenue, but Google Street View shows that the buildings still retain his title as of 2018. Trump's connection to Daewoo has attracted public attention: documents show that he still owed Daewoo $19.8 million in debt when he was first elected president, but it has never been publicly disclosed.

05 EU (France, Ireland) "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 20%

Trump actually owns two assets in the European Union: his golf course in Doonbeg, Ireland, has a 2023 revenue of about $16 million and a profit of $500,000; The other is the French island of St. Maarten in the Caribbean. Martin), with high season rents of up to $60,000 a week. The G-27 alliance had planned to strike back at Mr. Trump's tariffs on Thursday, but the European Union also held off on retaliation after Mr. Trump paused tax hikes the day before.

06 Philippines "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 17%

Trump's name stands tall among the tallest buildings in Manila, the capital of the Philippines. The luxury apartment tower, which was inaugurated during Mr. Trump's first presidency, has been reduced to zero by earning between $1 million and $5 million a year through naming rights grants in previous years, according to the latest disclosure documents. As a former American colony, the Filipino people have long ranked among the highest in the world in terms of favorability toward the United States. It is reported that the country is planning to unite other Southeast Asian countries to negotiate tariffs with the Trump administration.

07 Oman "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 10%

A day before the crucial debate between Trump and Biden in June 2024, the Trump Organization announced a brand licensing agreement with Dubai-based luxury real estate company DAR Global to build a golf resort in Muscat, Oman's capital. The 140-room waterfront project is expected to open in 2028, but according to disclosure documents, Mr. Trump has earned $2.5 million in the deal, most likely as a brand licensing fee. Speaking to local media immediately after the tariffs were announced, Omani government officials said the new tariffs would have little impact on Oman because of the exemptions for oil and gas products and the country's free trade agreement with the United States since 2009.

08 Saudi Arabia "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 10%

In December 2024, the Trump Organization's partnership with DAR Global expanded westward to Jeddah, a major port city in Saudi Arabia. According to the company's statement, a 47-story Trump-named apartment tower is on the verge of construction in the city. It is clear that Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, will also welcome the Trump project, but the exact details are not yet clear. "What can be revealed is that there will be at least one Trump Tower in it," Eric Trump told Reuters. At one point, the tariff news sent the Saudi stock market down about 7% (which recovered after the policy pause), while the continued decline in global oil prices could pose a threat to the region's economy.

09 Turkey "Liberation Day" Tariff Rate: 10%

Trump Tower Istanbul opened in 2014. Less than two years later, however, Mr. Trump's call to ban Muslims from entering the United States led his business partner, the Turkish Dogan family, to try to terminate the licensing agreement. That effort ultimately failed, and Forbes estimates that Trump will still receive about $300,000 in authorization fees from the program in 2023.

The day after Mr. Trump announced the tariffs, Turkey's finance minister publicly stated that Turkey's lower tax rates could give it a competitive advantage over other countries facing higher punitive tariffs.

10. UAE Emancipation Day Tariff Rate: 10%

Dubai's first Trump-Named Golf Club opened in 2017, less than a month after Trump became president. It is estimated that the project will generate about $3.5 million in brand licensing fees and management revenue in 2023. A second golf club, designed by Tiger Woods, was originally planned to open later, but apparently suffered delays. Despite this, the Trump Organization announced in July last year that it would renew its partnership with DAR Global to develop a third project in the UAE – a named hotel and apartment tower. The Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange fell on the day of the tariff announcement, but has now recovered some of its losses.

11. UK Emancipation Day Tariff Rate: 10%

Mr. Trump owns two golf courses in Scotland — Aberdeen and Turnberry. According to the latest financial data, the former lost about $1.7 million in 2023, while Turnberry Stadium made a profit of $4.7 million, fully compensating for the former's loss. The trade surplus between the United States and the former colonial overlord has given Britain the lowest tariff status in the Trump administration. But Britain's FTSE 100 was still down about 8% as of Thursday. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has been more cautious than the rest of Europe, told Labour members this week: "My gut feeling is that we should not rush into retaliatory measures. "

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About a week before announcing his candidacy for president of the United States in 2016, Trump was photographed at the Turnberry Golf Club in Scotland. Ian MacNicol/Getty Images

12. Uruguay Emancipation Day Tariff Rate: 10%

The last remaining Trump-branded real estate project in Latin America was established in 2012 but reportedly stalled during Trump's first presidency. Local media reported that although the project was inaugurated in 2022 in the presence of the President of Uruguay, the actual work has not yet been completed. Still, it generated about $600,000 in revenue for Trump's brand licensing business last year. Like many small economies, Uruguay is seeking to negotiate the removal of new tariffs.