Some Crypto Tips and Insights
Firstly, while I believe we're in the early stages of the echo bubble, it's crucial to take profits during times of alt euphoria. Shorting, P/L screenshots, and other altcoin-related activities are tempting, but it's essential to stay level-headed and avoid becoming overly attached to any one particular asset.
In crypto, staying impressionable is key. As narratives evolve, those who resist risk getting stuck on the sidelines and becoming exit liquidity. It's best to be like water and adapt to the changes in the market. In traditional finance, it's challenging to gain an information edge in an efficient market. However, in crypto, being early to narratives/liquidity rotation is a mix of timing, luck, and information edge.
To gain an information edge in the crypto market, it's crucial to follow the right accounts, be in the right discord or telegram groups, and focus on providing value in a specific niche so that you become irreplaceable. News trading is becoming increasingly difficult due to bots and scraping tools that can act faster than human beings. Therefore, it's best to be early to narratives, think like larger accounts, and wait for them to promote your asset, providing you with liquidity.
If you're reading this, you've been through the bear market, squeezing water out of rocks. Don't forget why we grinded through it and why the juice is worth the squeeze.
When it comes to macroeconomic factors like inflation, it's best to largely ignore memes like "recession" or "inflation." Most of them are self-fulfilling prophecies. For example, if you think car price inflation will be higher in the coming months, you may buy the car earlier to front-run, leading to an inventory shortage and ultimately inflation. However, politics of inflation may shift to politics of recession in 2023, making it a deflationary year.
Finally, international factors like Europe's 80% cut in Russian gas imports and a 20-25% total gas consumption cut without crushing aggregate activity are worth noting.
Be wary of project teams and VCs who have been quiet during this impulse move up. They may return to their grifter ways, looking to create exit pumps when retail investors return to the market. Remember, staying impressionable and critical thinking are not mutually exclusive.
In conclusion, watch the world around you with glittering eyes because the greatest secrets are always hidden in the most unlikely places.
