以太坊巨鲸26亿美元押注能否阻止回调?ETH恐面临43%下跌风险

ETH1,05%

Gate News 消息,以太坊(ETH)价格在2055美元附近震荡,维持自2月24日以来的8小时上升通道,但技术信号显示潜在回调风险正在积聚。聪明资金指数(SMI)显示知情投资者仍在观望,8小时图上的十字星蜡烛图也反映出买卖双方的犹豫,模式与1月份ETH从3042美元暴跌43%前的结构相似。

相对强弱指数(RSI)进一步强化了看跌信号。在通道内创出新高的同时,RSI却出现下行背离,显示价格动能减弱。与此同时,链上数据显示,以太坊巨鲸自3月24日以来持续增持,持仓增加约129万枚ETH,市值约26亿美元。然而,历史经验提醒,巨鲸增持并未阻止1月的暴跌,本轮增持可能同样难以提供实质支撑。

技术上,ETH当前价格位于0.5斐波那契回调位2093美元与0.618回调位2024美元之间,2024美元区域构成关键支撑。一旦日线收盘跌破该水平,上升通道结构将受损,下一个目标位为1925美元,进一步可能下探至1800美元附近。若价格能回升至2162美元或更高,才有望确认看涨结构仍在。

交易者需关注通道底部的支撑力度以及RSI和聪明资金动向。虽然巨鲸持续买入提供一定心理支撑,但价格动能疲弱和潜在宏观压力可能引发短期回调。投资者应谨慎评估26亿美元巨鲸押注对以太坊的实际影响,并留意关键价格位的突破或跌破情况,这将决定ETH下一步走势。

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