Gate News消息，3月29日，"1011内幕巨鲸"代理人Garrett Jin在X平台发文表示，特朗普已向伊朗发出48小时最后通牒，要求全面恢复霍尔木兹海峡通行，局势明显升级。其总结这一举动带来三方面关键影响：一是外交缓冲被打破，此前伊朗与日本就船只逐一通行的低调协商路径面临终结；二是冲突性质升级，若打击扩大至电力等民用基础设施，将强化伊朗立场并提高长期战争可能性；三是油市波动飙升、市场错配加剧，原油波动率OVX升至93，而芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数VIX约为24，二者比值接近4倍，显示油市风险远超股市定价。整体来看，油价与市场波动率持续上行，冲突持续时间预期延长。
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