Gate News 消息，3 月 20 日，据 PolyBeats 监测，在预测市场 Polymarket 上，2 个曾精准预测美国打击伊朗时间的账户投入 6100 美元，在「美伊是否会在 3 月 31 日前停火」买入「是」，目前概率为 8%。其中，1 个账户曾将打击时间精确预测到天并获利 16 倍，另 1 个账户曾精准押注 2025 年的「十二日战争」爆发时间并获利近 9 倍。伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安于 3 月 11 日在 X 上表示：「结束这场由犹太复国主义政权和美国引发的战争的唯一途径，是承认伊朗的合法权利、支付赔偿，并提供坚实的国际保证以防止未来侵略。」美国官方尚未对伊朗提出的上述具体条件作出正式妥协回复，其公开立场依然聚焦于要求伊朗立刻停止军事行动，并切断对中东地区代理人武装的实质性支持。根据过往交易画像判断，该交易者并非押注事件是否实际发生，存在开仓后在某一时间点止盈、止损的行为。账户地址：0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9、0xfe6eee00d36717359578ddb4d6e091d56bc9074e，总投入 6100 美元。
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