Gate News 消息，3 月 11 日，据 PolyBeats 监测，在预测市场 Polymarket 上，过去一日内，一个以色列板块 78% 胜率的地址押注 9500 美元「伊朗政权不会在六月垮台」，开仓均价 77¢，现价 77.5¢。自 2 月 28 日爆发联合战争以来，美以军队的精准轰炸已导致执政 37 年的最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊身亡，同时多名伊斯兰革命卫队高级指挥官及国防军高官也在轰炸中丧生。伊朗专家会议已于近日正式宣布由哈梅内伊的次子、56 岁的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊接任第三代最高领袖。此前在针对领袖地下防空地堡的密集轰炸中，以色列媒体曾广泛爆出穆杰塔巴已被炸死或受重伤的传闻。尽管目前他已被官方宣布继任，但自战争打响以来他一直未在任何公开场合露面。穆杰塔巴作为常年隐居幕后的「大管家」，与拥有极强武力的革命卫队深度绑定。即使遭遇极端的斩首打击，伊朗庞大的安全机器与既定的权力交接网络仍在强行维持系统运转。注：根据其过往交易画像判断，该交易者并非押注事件是否实际发生，存在开仓后在某一时间点止盈、止损的行为。账户：0xf1899a30a2c016941bf4abd77b900ecacd768e47。
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