The price of Cardano may fall to 0.25 if this happens.

In a recent analysis, cryptocurrency expert Dan Gambardello presented three bearish scenarios for Cardano (ADA), based on current market trends and technical factors.

Scenario 1: ADA price falls to the range $0.35-$0.45 (probability 60%)

According to Gambardello, the most likely scenario is that the price of ADA will continue to adjust to the range of $0.35-$0.45, corresponding to a fall of about 30-35% from the current price of $0.52. This is a continuation of the bearish trend from the previous level of $0.52. He stated: “This is a reasonable scenario and has a high chance of becoming a reality.”

Scenario 2: The price of Cardano falls deeply to the range of $0.25-$0.35 if the important support is broken.

If the market experiences a failure at strong support levels – similar to what happened with Ethereum – the price of ADA could fall deeply to the range of $0.25-$0.35. This correction will test the support levels established since the summer of 2024. Gambardello emphasizes that this scenario will only occur if the support levels that have been maintained for several months are breached.

Scenario 3: Cardano price falls below $0.25 ( probability 10% ) – comprehensive reset cycle

The most severe scenario is that the price of ADA falls below $0.25, marking a new low in many years and meaning that all support areas from the summer of 2024 are broken. Gambardello only assigns a 10% probability to this scenario, as it only occurs when macro liquidity in the financial markets completely fails. He believes that this will only happen if there are negative impacts beyond the scope of the cryptocurrency market.

Notes on Market Prospects and Investment Strategies

Gambardello emphasized that the above scenarios do not rule out the possibility that the cryptocurrency market will experience positive turning points, especially as liquidity improves and strong price increases occur. He views these as contingency plans to help investors be more proactive in the face of unexpected developments, rather than being certain forecasts.

Currently, ADA has tested the price area of $0.40 before recovering to $0.52, indicating that market sentiment is still quite volatile. The analyst also expresses empathy with investors facing a strong correction phase, while comparing the movement of ADA with Ethereum to highlight the general trend of major altcoins in the context of declining market liquidity.

Scenario below $0.25 – necessary factors and consequences

According to Gambardello, ADA falling below $0.25 would cause the total market capitalization of altcoins ( excluding Bitcoin and stablecoin) to fall by about 50%, from $1 trillion to $500 billion. However, he believes this scenario is unlikely, especially as the market is witnessing strong interest from institutions, regulatory easing, and supportive factors such as the Clarity Act.

Gambardello stated that if the price falls deeply like this, it will be an opportunity for large capital to participate and redistribute, as investors accumulate at extremely low price levels. He also shared his personal view: “I would rather be wrong and return to the bear market to accumulate more at low price levels than miss the opportunity when the market enters a new growth cycle.”

Conclusion

The price movement of Cardano in the coming weeks will be a decisive factor in which scenario will come true. Investors need to closely monitor important support levels, while also preparing suitable response plans to optimize investment effectiveness in the context of a constantly fluctuating market.

Mr. Giáo