Prediction Market

Prediction market Myriad is transitioning to World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin as its exclusive settlement asset. As part of the move, Myriad, owned by _Decrypt_’s parent company Dastan, is migrating its entire prediction market catalog to BNB Chain. > Welcome to MYRIAD Season 3. > > Our b

Gate News Report, March 11 — Polymarket's 5-minute rise and fall crypto prediction market, launched less than a month ago, has become the platform's most popular market, with daily trading volume surpassing $60 million. The market offers 288 prediction windows per day, accounting for 67% of Polymarket's total trading volume across all crypto rise and fall prediction markets.

Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante announced during a Twitch live stream on March 11 that the token TGE is expected around March 23, with the exact date to be announced on March 12. Polymarket data shows a 100% probability that Backpack TGE will occur before the end of December and a 93% probability before the end of March.

Jupiter has plugged in Chainlink’s Data Streams for its 5-minute and 15-minute prediction markets on Solana. While Jup Predict now relies on Data Streams for its short-duration crypto markets, Jupiter has not added Chainlink to its wider DeFi protocol. Chainlink has announced a new

Two US lawmakers have introduced a new bill. That aims to stop people from betting on violent global events. The proposal is called the Death Bets Act. It would ban prediction markets from offering bets related to war, terrorism, assassination or a person’s death. The bill was introduced on

Iranian spokesperson announces end to reciprocal retaliation policy, shifting to sustained strikes, and warns that oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel. Meanwhile, market data shows a low probability of a US-Iran ceasefire, only 5% before March 15.

Chainlink partners with Jupiter Exchange to enhance its prediction markets on Solana, offering 5-minute and 15-minute markets for major cryptocurrencies. This integration ensures fast, secure data, boosting user confidence and transparency in decentralized trading.

Gate News Report, March 11 — According to the latest data from Polymarket, the market odds that DeepSeek V will be released on March 31 are 42%. Currently, the trading volume on this prediction market has exceeded $1.04 million.

In the WBC Classic Tournament preliminaries, the United States unexpectedly lost to Italy 6-8, affecting their chances of advancing. The US team’s qualification depends on the result of the Italy vs. Mexico game; if Italy wins, both Italy and the US advance; if Italy loses, the decision will be based on points allowed. The prediction market shows a higher probability of Mexico winning. The US team needs to rely on other teams' results to secure a spot in the next round.

On the Polymarket prediction market, an account invested $5,800 to buy options with a transaction volume exceeding $1.5 billion for the crypto payment card, causing the probability to surge from 4% to 88%. This change was driven by PaymentScan adding RedotPay data, increasing the transaction volume from $1 billion to $1.456 billion, approaching the preset threshold.

On March 11, reports claimed that Israel killed Supreme Leader Khamenei in an airstrike on Iran. Despite the dramatic turn of events, Mujtaba Khamenei has been officially announced as his successor, but he has not appeared publicly since the war began. An address in the prediction market is betting $9,500, indicating market confidence that the Iranian regime will not fall in June.

Polymarket shows that two traders have collectively bet $13,200, believing that the Strait of Hormuz will not resume navigation before April 30th, with a current probability of 46%. The market generally believes that Trump hopes to end the conflict quickly to stabilize oil prices. Iran has also laid mines in the strait, increasing tensions.

On March 11, reports stated that on Polymarket, an address with an 88% win rate in the Middle East bet that the US and Iran would cease fire in April, totaling $11,400. Trump said the war is about to end, but after crude oil prices fell, gasoline prices did not return to pre-war levels. Analysts believe that the security risks in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to keep oil prices high.

In the 2026 World Baseball Classic, Team USA was defeated 6-8 by Italy, causing a major upset and instantly throwing the advancement situation into chaos. Although in reality Team USA needs to account for points lost, the prediction market Polymarket had already determined that the US would advance before the season even started, leading to quite a ridiculous situation. This is because the oracle's optimistic mechanism was not challenged, resulting in automatic settlement errors.

British politician Nigel Farage's assistant George Cottrell has attracted attention for betting that the US-Iran conflict will end before June 2026, despite currently incurring losses. This bet is related to changes in the Reform Party's stance, with Farage also beginning to advocate avoiding involvement in the conflict. Cottrell was previously convicted of fraud and has recently accumulated losses exceeding $800,000 in political and international event betting, but these are still limited compared to his earlier substantial gains. The growing ties between politics and finance add uncertainty to future developments.

Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket have emerged in recent years, but research shows the existence of price mismatches, allowing quantitative traders to profit nearly $40 million. The complexity of these arbitrage opportunities requires mathematical models and high-frequency trading to uncover. However, as technology becomes more widespread, it remains uncertain whether arbitrage opportunities will continue to exist in the future.

On March 11, a star account in the political market on Polymarket increased its bet on a March ceasefire between the US and Iran, investing $27,100. Despite Trump stating that the war would end, Iran expanded its attack range, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait successfully intercepting multiple drones. Israel stated that the timing of the end of the war would be decided by itself and the United States.

In the Poli market, an address with a high win rate invested $4,000 betting that the U.S. military will enter Iran in March. Despite frequent signals from the U.S. side indicating that military operations have been completed, the market remains concerned about the U.S. special forces' on-the-ground actions, speculating that they may carry out ground missions to control nuclear materials.

On March 11, a geopolitical account on Polymarket bet $62,800 with an 83% chance of winning that "Russia and Ukraine will not cease fire before June 30." Russia condemned the strikes on Iran, which increased regional instability, while Ukraine called on the West to continue aid. There has been no substantial progress on the eastern front, and ceasefire negotiations remain deadlocked.

On March 11, the prediction market Polymarket showed that a new address invested $2,500 betting that Trump will not end military operations against Iran in March. U.S. military officials stated that strikes against Iran are still ongoing but emphasized that it will not escalate into a long-term war.