QCP Capital: Options market layout ETH Square Pectra upgrade, AltCoin weakness and other factors may suppress upward momentum

On February 18th, QCP Capital's latest analysis pointed out that the term structure of the Options market is significantly distorted near the expiration date in March, especially on the Ethereum Options, which may reflect the market positioning for the upcoming launch of ETH Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and expected to go live in early April. Looking back on past upgrades, the merge upgrade in September 2022 followed the typical 'buy the rumor, sell the news' pattern - ETH rose more than 100% from the June low before falling after the upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which introduced staking withdrawals, was met with pessimism due to market concerns about oversupply. However, once the market realized that the selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose 30% in the following months. With the upgrade expectations heating up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with Options volatility skewing towards bullish Options after March 28th - setting the stage for the next narrative in the crypto market post the Trump tariff turmoil. One inhibiting factor is the widespread weakness of the altcoin market-LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH falling back to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's market share approaching historical highs. In addition to market catalysts, for altcoins to achieve sustained recovery, substantial progress in practical applications and network development may be needed, rather than just relying on speculative capital inflows.