瑞银:百年数据证明经济基本面才是市场核心驱动力

Odaily星球日报讯 瑞银集团的分析师在报告中指出,回溯 1900 年以来的数据表明,对于金融市场而言,经济风险已被证明比地缘政治风险更为显著。他们表示,在大多数情况下,投资者若能“看透”地缘政治的噪音,表现会最为出色。分析师们称:“通过对未来全球股票回报率与地缘政治威胁指数进行简单的回归分析,我们发现无论视角是一个月还是一年,两者之间都没有相关性。”然而,地缘政治风险在发生“具有重大经济影响的极端事件”时显然至关重要,分析师举例称,这包括一战、二战以及 1973 年至 1974 年的石油危机。但他们指出,这类事件“相对罕见”,从历史上看,经济风险对投资者而言一直更为重要。(金十)

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