伊朗打击海湾国家施压美国适得其反，多国或将反击伊朗

February Pullback Ends Six-Month Growth Streak for Prediction Markets

February 2026 marked the first decline in prediction market activity since August 2025, yet trading volume remained high at $23.4 billion, indicating resilience and sustained interest despite a slowdown. Competitive market dynamics signal a shift towards stability.

阿联酋考虑在战争蔓延之时打击伊朗

阿联酋在经历多次导弹和无人机袭击后，考虑对伊朗进行军事行动。尽管大部分袭击被拦截，但已造成3人死亡和约70人受伤。阿联酋官员表示保留回应权，愤怒情绪上升，可能引发地区大国干预。市场预测其将在3月31日前打击伊朗的概率为51%。

Kalshi：支持交易劳力士、欧米茄等腕表的价格波动

Foresight News 消息，Kalshi 发布推文表示，支持交易劳力士、欧米茄、卡地亚、帝舵等腕表的价格波动。

Anonymous Trader Bets $25,676 on Iran Closing Strait of Hormuz by March 31

Gate News bot message, approximately one hour ago, an anonymous wallet was created and placed a bet of $25,676 on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. Following this transaction, the odds have increased to 77%.

Federal Ruling Raises Risk for Polymarket, Kalshi in Nevada

A federal judge has returned Nevada's civil enforcement action against prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket to state court, increasing the risk of restrictions on their operations amid growing state regulatory pressure.

Kalshi「哈米尼退位」5 千萬美元合約爆爭議！CEO 喊話：拒絕死亡套利

Kalshi近期因哈米尼死訊引發爭議，許多資金湧入相關預測合約，導致結算混亂並暫停交易。雖然Kalshi退款用戶淨損失約220萬美元，但平台的宣傳行為遭批評，並引發美國議員要求查緝類似暗殺相關合約。Polymarket也面臨爭議，特定合約的結算引起用戶不滿，並出現內線交易的質疑。