2月3日消息，本周比特币一度跌破7.6万美元，导致Strategy股价单日下挫7%。更值得关注的是，该公司持有的713,502枚比特币已与其平均成本价几乎重合，约为76,052美元。这意味着，Strategy的持仓已从单纯的企业财务配置，转变为影响市场情绪与价格预期的重要参考坐标。
目前，Strategy控制着约占比特币总供应量3.57%的筹码。CryptoQuant分析师Maartunn指出，这种规模已使其从“看多者”转变为“结构本身”。链上数据显示，当前约61%的流通比特币高于现价，39%低于现价，而Strategy的巨量仓位正好横跨这一平衡区。
尽管价格承压，Strategy仍以均价87,974美元再次购入855枚比特币，使边际成本继续上移。这批新资产在买入时即处于浮亏状态，也进一步提高了公司对资金与市场环境的敏感度。
不同于传统交易杠杆，Strategy的风险来自资产负债表。其购币资金主要源自股权发行、可转债及其他资本工具。SEC文件显示，公司仍拥有数百亿美元的潜在融资额度，但这种模式也可能形成反馈循环：比特币下跌→股价走弱→融资能力下降→买入力度受限，从而削弱市场支撑。
链上指标同样释放谨慎信号。已实现市值停滞，SOPR持续低于1，表明短期持有者仍在亏损离场。若现货交易量与机构资金动能无法恢复，反弹或难以持续。
在当前结构下，7.6万美元已不仅是价格区间，更像是市场的心理与机械锚点。未来走势，将取决于比特币价格、Strategy股价以及资本市场准入之间的微妙平衡。
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