比特币(BTC)前景仍被看好,华尔街预计长期市值挑战黄金

BTC-0,03%

尽管近期比特币(BTC)价格走势引发市场分歧,华尔街分析师依然对其长期前景保持乐观态度。整体来看,有观点认为,比特币可能很快重新进入价格发现阶段,其资产属性正在被市场重新定价,长期潜力依旧稳固。

在接受 CNBC 采访时,William Blair 的金融科技股票分析师 Andrew Jeffrey 表示,短期价格回调并未动摇他对比特币长期价值的判断。综合来看,2026 年初加密市场整体表现较 2025 年第四季度更为强劲,尽管 BTC 在一轮反弹后出现超过 2% 的回落,但此前涨幅一度接近 5%,显示市场仍具韧性。

针对近期价格波动,Jeffrey 认为,比特币的走势反映了其作为“尚未完全成熟资产”的特性。他指出,比特币当前市值已超过 1.9 万亿美元,但供应结构高度集中,约三分之一的比特币掌握在少数约 200 万个钱包中。这种集中度在市场承压时,往往会放大价格波动。

此外,他提到,近年来通过 ETF 进入市场的部分新投资者信心相对脆弱,在回调阶段更容易选择止盈或止损,从而加剧短期抛压。这种行为容易形成连锁反应,使价格在短时间内承受更大压力。不过,从中长期角度来看,他认为当前的避险情绪并不可持续。

从资产定位上分析,Jeffrey 强调,比特币正逐步被市场视为一种价值储存工具,而非支付手段。他认为,稳定币更适合用于日常交易,而比特币的核心优势在于稀缺性与长期保值潜力。综合判断,比特币未来市值有望持续扩张,甚至在长期内向黄金靠拢,目前黄金市值仍约为比特币的 15 倍。

在谈及市场结构时,他进一步指出,比特币依然是加密市场的核心驱动力。长期来看,若缺乏比特币的引领作用,加密货币整体市场将难以实现持续性上涨。

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