方正证券:市场定价美联储1月不降息,最早或6月开启降息

PANews 1月10日消息,据金十报道,方正证券研报称,12月非农数据好坏参半,美国就业市场整体处于温和下行趋势,但失业率边际改善,给1月美联储更多观望的理由,结合最高法或宣布IEEPA关税违宪,短期或利多美股和美元、利空美债:新增就业、职位空缺率、时薪增速等数据表明12月美国就业市场仍相对疲软,但失业率数据的边际下降是为数不多亮点。从利率期货和美债走势看,数据公布后市场定价美联储1月不降息,最早或6月开启降息。 与此同时,由于最高法近期或宣布IEEPA关税违宪,意味着经济预期或边际改善,通胀压力走弱,但财政赤字加剧。在美联储不急于降息+关税降温的组合下,短期美债不利因素较多,高位运行概率较高,美股受益于AI景气度+关税扰动减少,尤其是必选消费、工业等关税受损部门弹性较大。

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