作者：Azuma，Odaily 星球日报
市场低迷不振，投资者的神经也处于高度紧绷状态。
过去一周内，围绕着「贝莱德频繁向 Coinbase 大额转出 BTC、ETH」一事引起了许多投资者的关注，许多人在看到转账动态的时候会立即将其解读为砸盘信号，并尝试基于该信号对短线行情进行解读，但这一方法论真的站得住脚吗？
Odaily 注：贝莱德昨晚再次向 Coinbase 转入大量 BTC 和 ETH。
11 月 25 日凌晨，做市巨头Wintermute 创始人 Evgeny Gaevoy 于 X 就此事发表评论表示：「这（贝莱德的大额转账）其实是一个滞后性很强的指标。抛售早已在 ETF 中发生。做市商的链上转账往往也是一样的情况。」
Evgeny 的话该如何理解？如果转账存在滞后性，那么真正的抛售到底发生在什么时刻？
首先需要明确的一点是，所谓的贝莱德大额转账，指的是贝莱德现货比特币 ETF（IBIT）以及现货以太坊 ETF（ETHA）的储备地址向 Coinbase Prime 托管地址进行加密货币转账。
根据 Evgeny 在后续回答网友提问时的补充介绍，这其实是 ETF 出现净流出之时，大型做市商围绕着 ETF 进行做市并对冲的一个环节。
具体而言，做市商会从 ETF 卖家手中买入份额，随后向贝莱德提交赎回申请，将 ETF 份额兑换为 BTC（通常会有 1 天延迟），之后的环节并不存在抛压，因为做市商在购入 ETF 时已同步完成对冲（卖出）操作。
换句话说，真正的抛压并不会出现在散户看到链上转账之时，而是会出现在做市商一边承接 ETF 的卖单（对于做市商而言是买入），一边在外部市场进行卖出对冲的时候。由于赎回流通通常有 1 天的延迟，实际的抛压可能出现在 1 天之前。
补充一点，以上为 ETF 出现净流出时的做市环节，反过来当 ETF 出现净流入时，做市商也会一边向购买者出售 ETF，一边买入加密货币（比如当前正在净流入的 SOL）并发送给 ETF 发行方，由于这里并不存在赎回时间限制，因此滞后时间会缩短，但依旧会存在一定滞后。
总而言之，所谓的「贝莱德大额转账」实际上只是 ETF 标准运作流程中的结算环节，其所代表的抛售压力一般已出现在转账之前，而非之后。相关数据在每日的 ETF 流入、流出监测中也会有更清晰且全面的呈现，无需将其二次解读为额外的看空信号，进而造成不必要的恐慌。
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