After Bitcoin broke the new high of 124,000 USD, why did Strategy's stock price fall against the trend? | The end of the premium era for corporate held coins.

Bitcoin reached a historic high of $124,000 in 2025, but the largest corporate holder, MicroStrategy (now known as Strategy Inc), saw its stock price fall nearly 9%, severely depegging from the value of its 629,000 BTC holdings (currently worth about $72.5 billion). Data shows that its stock premium ratio (market capitalization/Bitcoin net assets) plummeted from 2.5-3 times in 2024 to 1.4 times, reflecting that the popularity of Bitcoin Spot ETFs, pressure on financing models, and declining market volatility are ending the golden era of corporate holdings as on-chain asset leverage exposure. Investors are turning to more efficient and compliant Bitcoin Spot ETF allocation paths.

Bitcoin New High vs. Weak Stock Prices, Strategy Coin-Stock Correlation Effect Fails

In 2025, Bitcoin continued to strengthen, once breaking through the $124,000 mark (falling back to $115,000 on August 18). According to historical patterns, this should significantly boost the stock price of the largest corporate holder, Strategy Inc (formerly MicroStrategy) — the company has transformed into a Bitcoin core enterprise reserve platform since 2020, holding 629,000 BTC (currently valued at approximately $72.5 billion). Its stock (ticker: MSTR) has long been seen as a Compliance alternative for investors to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin, often exhibiting excess returns during bull markets. However, by 2025, this correlation significantly weakened. During the week when Bitcoin hit an all-time high (August 11-15), Strategy's stock price fell from $400 to $366, a drop of nearly 9%. Currently, the stock price has shrunk by about one-third compared to its 52-week high of $543, while the value of its Bitcoin spot reserves continues to rise. Valuation models reveal a deep disconnection: Strategy's current market capitalization is about $104 billion, with a premium rate (PBTC) relative to its Bitcoin holdings net worth of only 1.4 times, far lower than the premium range of 2.5-3 times in 2024. From February to August 2025, the return on investment in Bitcoin (22%) has significantly outperformed Strategy's stock (9%), marking the dissolution of its traditional advantage as leveraged exposure to Bitcoin.

Financing model under pressure, shareholder resistance to dilution becomes a key obstacle

The weak stock price of Strategy is not only due to the shift in market sentiment but also exposes the severe challenges facing its financing structure, which relies on expanding Bitcoin reserves. Since 2020, the company has raised billions of dollars through equity issuance and convertible bond issuance. This model had been effective: investors accepted equity dilution in exchange for expected leveraged returns from the appreciation of Bitcoin. But this consensus is collapsing. The company's recent update on the equity issuance plan has triggered a market sell-off, indicating that shareholders' tolerance for the "stock price underperforming Bitcoin + continuous dilution" has dropped to a freezing point. The early financing environment is also no longer in existence: the coupon rates of convertible bonds issued in 2021 and 2023 are as low as 0.75%-1.5%, showing significant financing cost advantages. The current high interest rate environment combined with the narrowing of stock price premiums forces companies to turn to issuing preferred shares for financing - although it avoids immediate dilution, fixed dividend payments will weaken future financial flexibility. Equity dilution has become a heavy burden: the number of outstanding shares has surged by over 40% in the past three years. This model was accepted when MSTR consistently outperformed Bitcoin; now, with the stock price lagging behind the underlying asset, the cost of dilution is deterring investors. Although the strategy boasts the largest corporate Bitcoin reserves globally, the expansion engine has shown signs of fatigue.

The Rise of Bitcoin Spot ETF and the Collapse of the Enterprise Agency Model Value

When Michael Saylor led the company's transformation in 2020, MSTR stock was an efficient tool for equity investors to indirectly allocate Bitcoin—at that time, compliance products were scarce, custody solutions were immature, and retail channel friction costs were high, supporting its high premium. Environmental Changes in 2025: Since being approved in early 2024, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in inflows. The assets under management of the ETF under BlackRock alone have surpassed $89 billion, with other issuers also contributing significant increments. These products provide investors with strong liquidity, clear regulation, and low fees (generally below 0.25%) for Bitcoin exposure, forming a crushing advantage with their security, convenience, and low-cost combination. Retail channels are expanding simultaneously: Coinbase, Robinhood, and even traditional brokerage apps now support direct purchases of small amounts of Bitcoin. The lowering of the threshold for acquiring digital assets has completely diminished the demand for corporate agency models. Investors no longer need to hold Bitcoin through the balance sheet of software companies; they can directly purchase Spot or choose compliant ETFs with zero dilution and low fees, resulting in a significant compression of the premium space for Strategy stocks.

360 USD becomes the watershed for bulls and bears, corporate holding strategies face reconstruction

The stock price of Strategy is increasingly dominated by market psychology rather than fundamentals. Recent trading has hovered around the narrowest range in years, with $360 becoming a key psychological support level. The shareholder structure has also changed: the previously anchor investor Vanguard reduced its holdings last quarter, while the proportion of hedge funds in intraday trading has increased. Similar companies' Bitcoin holdings are facing widespread pressure: Japan's Metaplanet has seen a decline of over one-third during the same period, reflecting a systematic decline in investor interest in the Bitcoin reserve strategies of listed companies. The collapse of volatility is the main reason for the waning attraction—investors who once paid high premiums to chase leveraged returns are now turning to Ethereum on-chain reserves, crypto IPOs, and other emerging areas in search of excess returns. The core issue is whether the Strategy can reposition itself in the new order. The support level at $360 may provide a tactical entry opportunity, but the long-term outlook depends on whether the corporate holding strategy can regain the role of "Bitcoin leverage proxy." Analysts show significant divergence: the bullish target price still reaches $550-570 (potential increase of over 50%), but the path to realization must meet two major conditions: the continuation of the Bitcoin bull market supports asset value, and the company can balance reserve growth with shareholder returns.

Conclusion

The epic depeg between Strategy's stock price and Bitcoin's trend marks the end of the 1.0 era of corporate holding coins as on-chain asset proxy tools. The compliance and popularization of Bitcoin Spot ETFs fundamentally restructure the on-chain asset allocation paths for institutions and individual investors, forcing corporate holding strategies to evolve into a 2.0 model of "on-chain treasury management + ecological value capture." The transformation dilemma of Strategy serves as a warning to future players: relying solely on financial leverage to amplify Bitcoin exposure is no longer sustainable; only by building a unique ecological empowerment model can one maintain valuation premiums in the post-ETF era.