8.14 AI Daily The crypto market is experiencing a comprehensive pump, driven mainly by Fed interest rate cut expectations and institutional demand.

1. Headlines

1. The price of Ethereum has skyrocketed, approaching an all-time high, sparking discussions in the market.

The price of Ethereum has continued to rise over the past week, now approaching the historical high of $4,867 set in November 2021. Data shows that an average of 40,000 Ether has flowed out of exchanges daily over the past month, which is seen as a bullish signal. Analysts believe that the continuous expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem, increased institutional adoption, and the acceleration of on-chain financialization trends are the main driving forces.

At the same time, Standard Chartered Bank has significantly raised its price target for Ethereum to $7,500 by the end of 2025 and to $25,000 by the end of 2028. The bank's analysts stated that strong ETF inflows, the proliferation of stablecoins, and increased network activity are the main growth drivers.

However, some analysts have warned about the risks of a sudden drop in Ethereum. They believe that whales and market makers are currently liquidating short positions, but will soon also liquidate long positions, hence advising investors to stay away from leveraged trading.

2. Google's new regulations have sparked strong opposition from the crypto community.

Google Play Store has released a major policy update, requiring all cryptocurrency wallet applications to comply with local regulatory requirements, or they will be forcibly removed. The new rules immediately affect 13 countries and regions, including the United States, European Union, and the United Kingdom, sparking strong opposition from the cryptocurrency community.

The core contradiction lies in the fact that non-custodial wallets, which occupy a significant market share, are almost unable to meet compliance thresholds. The industry is concerned that mainstream applications like Metamask may be affected, and the ruling on the Tornado Cash developers' case may serve as a policy trigger. Users urgently need to find alternative download channels.

However, Google later clarified that non-custodial wallets are not subject to licensing requirements and will amend this policy. Nevertheless, the new regulations will still take effect on October 29, and cryptocurrency wallet developers need to pay close attention.

3. The Federal Reserve's rate cut in September is almost a done deal, with mixed feelings in the crypto market.

The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has recently continued to rise, and the market has fully priced it in. Analysts believe that under factors such as rising inflation, a moderate job market, and the impact of extended tariffs on price increases, although the rate cut in September is not yet certain, it has become almost a foregone conclusion.

The expectation of interest rate cuts has greatly increased investment sentiment in both traditional and crypto markets, leading to a widespread rebound in risk assets. Data shows that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has risen by 2.31% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $4.1 trillion.

However, some analysts warn that the onset of a rate cut period means that liquidity will take time, and the possibility of a sharp rise in the short term is not high. Meanwhile, the results of the November elections may bring uncertainty, and investors need to remain cautious.

Overall, the expectation of interest rate cuts is positive for the cryptocurrency market, but further observation is needed to determine when the turning point between bull and bear markets will arrive.

4. Dogecoin leads the altcoin surge, with whales' buying spree triggering the rise.

While Ethereum leads the mainstream cryptocurrencies, the altcoin sector is also experiencing a surge. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, a whale has purchased approximately 200 million dollars worth of Dogecoin, driving its daily increase to over 11%, now reported at 0.24 dollars.

Analysts believe that the bullish flag breakout signal for Dogecoin points to $0.30, coupled with the strong bullish signal formed by the golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. If buying pressure continues, the next target may be $0.273.

At the same time, Shiba Inu Coin, Cardano, and other altcoins have also seen varying degrees of increase. Analysts say that the arrival of the altcoin season is beginning to show signs, but further observation is needed for confirmation.

Overall, under the leadership of mainstream cryptocurrencies, the activity of altcoins has increased, and investors need to closely monitor future performance.

5. Cryptocurrency concept stocks surge, investors' FOMO sentiment is high.

All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with cryptocurrency concept stocks performing the best. Data shows that on its first day of listing, it surged 83%, closing at $68, with a market value of approximately $9.9 billion; Ark Invest bought more than $170 million worth of multiple funds.

Analysts believe that under the influence of interest rate cut expectations and the active cryptocurrency market, investors are experiencing a heightened FOMO sentiment towards crypto concept assets. Meanwhile, a certain platform announced an upgrade to its economic model, planning to burn up to $7.6 billion worth of tokens, driving a widespread increase in platform tokens.

However, some analyses warn that cryptocurrency concept stocks often contain speculative elements, and investors should operate with caution. Overall, the performance of concept stocks reflects investors' optimism about the cryptocurrency market, but one should also be wary of excessive speculation.

2. Industry News

1. Bitcoin breaks through $124,000 to set a new historical high, and the cryptocurrency market continues its upward trend.

Bitcoin has surged past $124,000 today, setting a new historical record, with a peak of $124,347. This increase is mainly driven by the dual momentum of rising expectations for interest rate cuts in September and the sustained growth in institutional demand. Market analysts believe that structural supply scarcity and the confidence of long-term holders will support Bitcoin's upward trend for the remainder of this year.

The cryptocurrency market is generally showing an upward trend, with 24-hour increases typically reaching around 2% to 8%. Ethereum rose by 3.44%, breaking through $4700. This market trend is primarily driven by continuous inflows of institutional funds, improved regulatory transparency, and the expansion of stablecoins. Ethereum's key role in decentralized finance is also one of the driving forces.

Analysts point out that although there are signals of a market top, institutional demand exceeding the supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum will still support further price increases. However, if the Federal Reserve takes unexpected actions, it could trigger a liquidity panic, leading to a halt in capital flow, and investors need to be vigilant about risks.

2. Ethereum ETF inflows surge, pushing prices close to historical highs.

Ethereum ETFs experienced a record $1 billion inflow in a single day, primarily driven by large purchases from BlackRock and other institutions, pushing the price of Ethereum close to its historical high. Favorable macroeconomic conditions also supported this rise.

Standard Chartered Bank has significantly raised its year-end target price for Ethereum in 2025 from $4,000 to $7,500, and the target for the end of 2028 from $7,500 to $25,000. The bank believes that the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem, an increase in institutional adoption, and the acceleration of on-chain financialization trends will support price increases.

Analysts indicate that despite Ethereum's price nearing historical highs, the consequences could be dire if the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates as expected in September. Currently, market trends are highly dependent on expectations of rate cuts, and if those expectations are not met, it could trigger severe volatility.

3. Are we approaching the altcoin season? Ethereum leads the crypto market while Bitcoin's dominance declines.

Recently, the price of Ethereum has soared nearly 30%, with spot ETF inflows far exceeding those of Bitcoin, pushing Bitcoin's dominance below the key psychological level of 60%. The total market capitalization of altcoins is approaching historical highs. Do these signs indicate that the altcoin season, which has been quiet for over two years, is about to return?

Factors driving this bullish outlook include increased institutional demand, improved regulatory transparency, and the expansion of stablecoins, while Ethereum's key role in decentralized finance cannot be overlooked.

However, analysts warn that the decline in Bitcoin's dominance does not necessarily mean that altcoins will dominate the market. Bitcoin and Ethereum will still be the dominant forces, and the upside potential for altcoins may be limited. Investors need to invest cautiously and closely monitor market trends.

4. Cryptocurrency market sentiment has shifted into the "greed" zone, key indicators suggest that the bull market may continue.

The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has risen to 75, entering the "Greed" zone, indicating that market sentiment is becoming optimistic. At the same time, a key indicator, Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), has first presented a "triple wave" pattern, breaking the 2017 single peak and 2021 double peak model.

Analysts believe that although institution-led allocations of crypto assets reduce market volatility, it also means that explosive hundredfold rallies may be difficult to replicate, and investors need to adjust their expectations for excess returns. However, overall, the current situation supports the continuation of a bull market.

It is worth noting that the total locked value in DeFi has risen to $197 billion, very close to the historical high of $206 billion. Among them, established DeFi projects such as Aave, Uniswap, and Pendle have shown strong performance, reflecting an increase in market activity.

5. Upgrade the economic model, plan to destroy tokens worth 7.6 billion dollars.

Officially upgrading the economic model, planning to destroy tokens worth up to $7.6 billion, reducing the total supply to 21 million pieces. This positive news drove a surge of 146% to $113, with a market value of approximately $26 billion, leading to a general rise in platform tokens.

At the same time, on its first day of listing, the cryptocurrency trading platform closed at $68, an increase of 83% from the issue price, with a market capitalization of approximately $9.9 billion. American investors are once again FOMO buying into cryptocurrency concept assets.

Analysts point out that the strengthening of platform tokens reflects investors' confidence in cryptocurrency exchanges. As regulations become increasingly clear, exchanges are expected to gain more development opportunities, and platform tokens may continue to benefit. However, investors should also be wary of potential adjustment risks.

3. Project News

1. The Sui ecosystem is accelerating its development, and Move projects are leading a new wave of innovation.

Sui is a brand new blockchain ecosystem developed by Mysten Labs, aimed at addressing the scalability and user experience challenges currently faced by blockchains. Sui utilizes the Move programming language and a new parallel execution architecture to achieve high throughput and low latency.

Latest news: The Sui ecosystem is rapidly developing, attracting numerous developers and projects. Among them, a certain project's cumulative trading volume has exceeded $7 billion, making it a leading project in the Sui ecosystem. In addition, Sui has launched the SuiPlay gaming platform and set up the largest game booth at the KBW conference in South Korea.

Market Impact: Move-based projects such as Sui, Aptos, and Movement are leading a new wave of innovation. These projects, with the high performance and security of the Move language, are expected to drive the application of blockchain technology across various fields. The rapid development of the Sui ecosystem also reflects the market's desire for high-performance public chains.

Industry Feedback: Analysts believe that although there are currently few tradable assets in the Sui ecosystem, its technical strength has gained widespread recognition among industry insiders. With more projects settling in and applications being implemented, Sui is expected to become a leader among Move-based projects. Investors are optimistic about the future development of Sui.

2. Grayscale advances Cardano spot ETF application, institutions layout ADA ecosystem

Grayscale is a cryptocurrency investment company that manages multiple cryptocurrency trust funds. The company's latest move is the official registration of the "Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF" in Delaware.

Latest update: Grayscale's move marks an important step towards bringing the spot Cardano ETF to market. Meanwhile, there are signs of institutional investors continuously increasing their holdings in the Cardano ecosystem, with the number of holders reaching a new high.

Market impact: The involvement of institutional investors will bring more funds and attention to the Cardano ecosystem. Once Grayscale's Cardano spot ETF is approved, it will further enhance the exposure and recognition of ADA among institutional investors.

Industry feedback: Analysts are optimistic about the future of Cardano. They believe that Cardano has a low-risk setup, indicating strong potential for sustained returns beyond the past cryptocurrency cycle patterns. The development of Cardano is expected to break the inherent four-year cycle of Bitcoin.

3. Google clarifies new policy does not restrict non-custodial wallets, alleviating industry concerns.

Google's previously announced new policy requires cryptocurrency wallet app developers to obtain licenses in 15 jurisdictions. This policy has raised concerns within the industry about restrictions on non-custodial wallets.

Latest update: Google has clarified that the new policy does not apply to non-custodial cryptocurrency wallet applications. This means that non-custodial wallet developers do not need to obtain a banking or money service license to list their apps on the Play Store.

Market Impact: Google's clarification alleviated industry concerns that the new policy could threaten the DeFi ecosystem and user on-chain privacy. Non-custodial wallets are an essential component of decentralized finance, and their normal operation is crucial for the entire ecosystem.

Industry feedback: Industry insiders welcome Google's clarification. They believe that if the new policy restricts non-custodial wallets, it will severely impact the DeFi ecosystem. Now that the policy is clear, the industry can continue to develop healthily and provide users with safe and reliable decentralized services.

4. Coinbase Developer: AI agents will become the largest users of Ethereum

The Ethereum Foundation shared a guest article by Coinbase development team members Kevin Leffew and Lincoln Murr, which mentions that AI agents are expected to become the largest users of Ethereum.

Latest update: Coinbase developers have utilized the HTTP 402 protocol and Ethereum Improvement Proposal 3009 to enable AI agents to conduct stablecoin transfers without human intervention. This innovation will significantly enhance the activity efficiency of AI agents on Ethereum.

Market Impact: The rise of AI agents will bring a large number of new use cases and traffic to Ethereum. The Ethereum ecosystem can leverage the development of AI technology to expand more innovative applications, thereby further enhancing the network value.

Industry feedback: Industry insiders are optimistic about the prospects of AI agents on Ethereum. They believe that the combination of AI technology and blockchain will create new growth points and bring new vitality to the entire industry. However, some analysts remind us to pay close attention to the potential security risks posed by AI agents.

5. Dogecoin breaks key resistance, altcoin season may reappear

The highly watched altcoin Dogecoin ( DOGE ) has recently broken through the key resistance level of $0.24, with a surge in trading volume and technical indicators supporting further upward trends.

Latest update: Dogecoin has seen a 6.5% increase amid significant accumulation by whales, followed by a pullback in the evening session. However, overall, Dogecoin shows a clear bullish pattern, with a key resistance level at $0.25.

Market Impact: The strengthening of Dogecoin has sparked expectations for the resurgence of altcoin season. The surge in Ethereum prices, the decline in Bitcoin's dominance, and the total market capitalization of altcoins approaching historical highs all indicate that the long-dormant altcoin season may be making a comeback.

Industry feedback: Analysts are divided on the arrival of the altcoin season. Optimists believe that altcoins have greater upside potential and investor sentiment is warming up; cautious observers worry that if the altcoin bubble bursts, it could lead to systemic risks. Overall, the market has certain expectations regarding the altcoin season.

6. Standard Chartered Bank is optimistic about Ethereum, raising its target price to $7500 by the end of 2025.

The renowned bank Standard Chartered has significantly raised its price forecast for Ethereum in its latest report, increasing the target price for the end of 2025 from $4,000 to $7,500.

Latest developments: Standard Chartered Bank believes that strong ETF inflows, demand for government bonds, and the proliferation of stablecoins are the main drivers behind the rise in Ethereum prices. Ethereum's market position has also been strengthened due to network activity and technological improvements.

Market Impact: The optimistic outlook of institutions regarding Ethereum's prospects will further increase market demand for it. The expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem, the rise in institutional adoption, and the acceleration of on-chain financialization trends will all contribute to price increases.

Industry feedback: Most analysts agree with Standard Chartered's view that Ethereum has fundamental support for continued price increases. However, some caution that the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may impact the cryptocurrency market, and investors should proceed with caution.

7. The U.S. government is considering new candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, which may impact cryptocurrency policy.

According to reports, the Trump administration is considering 11 new candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, including Jefferies Chief Market Strategist David Zervos.

Latest news: The Trump administration is brewing personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, and the newly appointed chairman may influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which in turn could impact the cryptocurrency market.

Market Impact: If the newly appointed chairman takes a hawkish stance, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, which could weigh on risk assets including the performance of cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if the new chairman adopts a dovish stance, it will be beneficial for the cryptocurrency market.

Industry feedback: Analysts indicate that if signals of personnel changes strengthen, the market may adjust interest rate expectations and risk pricing in advance. Investors need to closely monitor the direction of Federal Reserve policies and adjust their cryptocurrency investment strategies accordingly.

8. Circle faces interest rate cuts, USDC ecosystem may fall into difficulties

The well-known stablecoin issuer Circle is facing the impact of a potential significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to analysis, if interest rates decrease by 100 basis points, Circle's annual total revenue will drop by 23%, and profit margins will decline by 3.3 percentage points.

Latest news: Circle's business model is highly dependent on interest rates, and a rate cut will directly impact its income and profits. To offset the shock, USDC circulation needs to increase by 44%, but this goal may be difficult to achieve.

Market Impact: As the second largest stablecoin issuer, Circle's predicament will have repercussions on the entire USDC ecosystem. The development of the USDC ecosystem may be hindered, potentially leading to issues such as liquidity shortages.

Industry feedback: Analysts believe that a rate cut would be disastrous for Circle, leading to a significant shrinkage in its revenue and profits. Circle needs to seek new business models to reduce its reliance on interest rates to ensure the long-term sustainability of the USDC ecosystem.

4. Economic Dynamics

1. The Federal Reserve's expectation for a rate cut in September is heating up, while inflation data still holds uncertainty.

Economic Background: The US economy maintains a moderate growth trend in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate of 2.4% in the second quarter, slightly lower than the 2.6% in the first quarter. The inflation rate fell to 3.3% in June, but still exceeds the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. The unemployment rate slightly rose to 3.7% in May, but the overall job market remains robust.

Important event: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July released by the U.S. Department of Labor on August 11 shows an annual inflation rate of 3.2%, below the market expectation of 3.3%. This marks the second consecutive month of declining inflation rates, intensifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut cycle in September. According to CME's futures pricing tool, the market has fully priced in the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.

Market reaction: After the CPI data was released, the three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with investors betting that easing inflationary pressures will clear the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market also experienced a wave of upward momentum as investors sought to hedge against potential inflation risks through crypto assets. However, some analysts expressed skepticism about the sustainability of the inflation data, believing that inflation in the service sector continues to rise and that tightening conditions in the labor market could also drive up wage costs.

Expert Opinion: Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that although the latest inflation data is moderately optimistic, the Federal Reserve still needs more evidence to confirm that inflation pressures are easing. He expects the Fed to pause interest rate cuts in September, waiting for more data before making a decision. On the other hand, former Fed governor Larry Meyer believes the Fed should start the rate cut cycle in September to prevent inflation from rising again. Overall, there is a divergence of expectations among experts regarding a rate cut in September, and the market still needs to continue monitoring subsequent economic data.

5. Regulation & Policy

( 1. Google Play Store's cryptocurrency wallet policy reversal: Non-custodial wallets exempt from licensing requirements, industry pressure pays off.

Google's strict new regulations for cryptocurrency wallets, originally scheduled to be implemented from August to October 2025, have taken a dramatic turn! After facing strong backlash from the industry, Google has clarified that its Play Store policies do not apply to non-custodial cryptocurrency wallet applications. This means that non-custodial wallet developers do not need to obtain banking or money service licenses to list their applications, alleviating potential threats to the DeFi ecosystem and user on-chain privacy.

Previously, Google announced that it would require cryptocurrency wallet applications to obtain government licenses in 15 jurisdictions, including the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, before being listed. This policy has sparked widespread industry skepticism, with the core issue being that non-custodial wallets, which hold significant market share, are nearly impossible to meet compliance thresholds. There are concerns in the industry that mainstream applications like Wallet and Metamask may be affected, and the ruling in the case of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm may serve as a catalyst for this policy. Users need to urgently find alternative download channels.

Under pressure from developers, investors, and regulators, Google ultimately made concessions. The company stated that it would update the help center to clarify that non-custodial wallets are not subject to the new policy restrictions. This turnaround alleviates significant risks for the industry and prevents the DeFi ecosystem from suffering a heavy blow. However, for custodial wallets, the new regulations will still take effect on October 29 and must comply with local laws and regulations.

) 2. The South Korean government is accelerating the promotion of cryptocurrency reforms, with a focus on stablecoin regulation.

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea is currently preparing the "Legalization of Virtual Asset Trading for Enterprises" and the "Phase Two Legislation of User Protection for Virtual Assets" to enhance the competitiveness of the Korean virtual asset market. This plan aims to shift the existing regulatory-focused policy direction to a more lenient approach and establish consumer protection regulations comparable to those of major countries like the European Union. Given that the FSC has set a deadline for each initiative for the second half of this year, these policies are expected to be introduced soon.

The South Korean government's move aims to promote the development of its domestic cryptocurrency industry and attract more enterprises and funds into the sector. Among them, the emphasis on stablecoin regulation reflects South Korea's desire to secure a place in the global stablecoin payment competition.

The pressure of "regulatory arbitrage" caused by international regulatory differences has also become a focal point. The South Korean government aims to create a fair competitive environment for local companies by formulating regulations that align with those of major countries. At the same time, reasonable regulation will also help protect investors' rights and promote the long-term healthy development of the industry.

3. The American banking industry is urging Congress to close the loophole in the GENIUS Act regarding interest-bearing stablecoins to prevent the risk of trillion-dollar deposit outflows.

The major banking associations in the United States have jointly called on Congress to address the critical loophole in the "Payment Stablecoin Clarity Act" (GENIUS Act) to prevent stablecoin issuers and their affiliates from paying interest to holders. The banking industry warns that this move could lead to a massive outflow of deposits from the banking system, subsequently driving up borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, and threatening the stability of traditional credit markets. This debate could evolve into a broader discussion on the role of U.S. stablecoins in the international payment system, while future political shifts (such as a potential return of the Trump administration) may influence regulatory direction.

The "GENIUS Act" aims to provide regulatory certainty for stablecoin issuers, but the banking industry points out significant loopholes within it. Under the current terms, stablecoin issuers could be considered banks, thereby circumventing interest payment restrictions. This would put the banking industry at a disadvantage, with deposits potentially flowing out in large quantities to stablecoin issuers.

The banking industry is calling on Congress to amend the bill to explicitly prohibit stablecoin issuers from paying interest to holders. They believe that stablecoins should only be used as payment tools rather than investment products, in order to avoid undermining the stability of the financial system. However, the advantages of stablecoin payments may attract traditional financial institutions to participate in the competition, indicating an irreversible trend of development.