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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (03.14 - 03.21)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of digital currencies reached $357.9 billion, a decrease of 7.90% compared to the previous week. Exchange trading volume also saw a drop, reaching $8.43 billion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 4.00% to $98,839.87. Overall, the crypto market is showing a downward trend, mainly influenced by expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Investor sentiment is cautious, and market trading activity has decreased.
According to the Gate.io Fear and Greed Index, today the market sentiment is "Fear" with a Fear and Greed Index of 46. Compared to yesterday, the market sentiment has slightly improved, but overall it is still in a state of fear.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent macroeconomic data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing down. The U.S. February CPI rose by 6.0% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.8%, but lower than January's 6.4%. The Eurozone's February CPI preliminary annual rate is 8.5%, above the expected 8.2%. The Federal Reserve's March interest rate decision maintains the rate in the range of 4.5%-4.75%, but indicates that there will be a total interest rate cut of 50 basis points this year. The market currently expects the median interest rate of the Federal Reserve to be 3.9% by the end of 2025.
The Producer Price Index is a leading indicator of inflationary pressures. In February, the PPI in the United States rose by 4.6% year-on-year, below the expected 5.4% and the previous value of 5.7%. The Eurozone's PPI annual rate for February was 13.2%, higher than the previous value of 15.1%. Upstream inflationary pressures have eased, but remain at high levels. The Purchasing Managers' Index reflects economic momentum. The manufacturing PMI in the United States for February was 47.7, remaining in the contraction zone for the eighth consecutive month. The Eurozone's composite PMI for February was 52.0, slightly lower than the previous value of 52.3. The risk of economic slowdown has increased.
Overall, high inflation and increased risks of economic slowdown pose challenges for monetary policy formulation. The cryptocurrency market will continue to be influenced by the macro environment, and investors need to closely monitor changes in economic data.
1.3 Financial Calendar
This week's focus is on the U.S. February Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year, Personal Spending Month-on-Month, and other inflation and consumption data. In addition, initial jobless claims, GDP revisions, and other employment and economic growth data are also worth paying attention to. The Manufacturing and Services PMI indices reflect the state of economic activity. The Consumer Confidence Index and new home sales data reflect consumer sentiment and the state of the real estate market.
Overall, the economic data released this week will provide important references for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate hike decision. The market expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes in May, but the specific timing depends on the performance of inflation and employment data. Investors need to closely monitor these macroeconomic indicators to grasp market trends.
2. Analysis of Capital Flow and Price Volatility
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
BTC Volatility This Week: Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the volatility for BTC this week is 1.23%.
The price of BTC has shown a slight upward trend this week. The closing price last Friday (March 15) was $84,413.90, and the closing price this Friday (March 21) was $84,469.30, with a weekly increase of 0.13%. The price increase is mainly influenced by the overall positive trend in the cryptocurrency market recently.
Trading Volume Analysis: The average daily trading volume of BTC this week is $110.466 billion, a decrease of 15.72% compared to last week. The decline in trading volume may reflect an increase in investors' wait-and-see sentiment, leading to a decrease in market activity. However, the overall trading volume remains at a high level, indicating that the demand for BTC in the market is still strong.
Market Sentiment Analysis: Based on the latest BTC market data, investors are cautiously optimistic about BTC's future prospects. Although the recent price increase has been limited, BTC, as the leader of the cryptocurrency market, has a significant impact on the price trends of the entire market. Investors are closely monitoring whether BTC can effectively break through the $85,000 level.
In summary, the price of BTC has fluctuated relatively gently this week, with a slight decrease in trading activity, but the overall market sentiment remains stable. Whether BTC can continue to rise in the future will require further observation of market trends.
2.2. Fund Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, we can observe the inflow and outflow of some major cryptocurrencies. For instance, the FORM coin has shown a net inflow in the past few days, especially on March 21, when the inflow amounted to $188 million, far exceeding the outflow. This indicates that investors have high confidence in FORM, and the market activity is also quite vigorous.
In contrast, some other major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH have experienced varying degrees of capital outflow. This may reflect that some investors are taking profits or reallocating their portfolios, or it could be due to certain actions by institutional investors. Overall, the activity level in the cryptocurrency market remains high.
From the perspective of investor types, we find that institutional investors tend to be more cautious in their capital flows, preferring to enter the market and build positions during downturns, while retail investors are more likely to react excessively to market sentiment. This difference is also an important reason for the short-term fluctuations in the market.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often predicts market trends. According to the latest data, the large transaction volumes of BTC and ETH show different trends.
BTC Large Order Transaction Volume Analysis: The transaction volume of large BTC orders has recently declined, indicating insufficient willingness of institutional funds to enter the market. This may suggest that BTC will face certain selling pressure in the short term. However, in the long run, BTC, as the leader of cryptocurrencies, will still attract a large influx of funds.
Analysis of Large ETH Transaction Volume: Unlike BTC, the large transaction volume of ETH has recently increased, indicating that institutional funds are gradually increasing their positions in ETH. This may be related to the applications of ETH in areas such as DeFi and NFTs. ETH may be set to welcome a wave of bullish trends in the market.
Overall, BTC may be under pressure in the short term, while ETH may have opportunities for upward movement. However, in the long run, the development prospects of the cryptocurrency market remain bright. Investors need to maintain patience and rationality.
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3. Hot Topics
The voting for listing coins has triggered an "internal war" in the crypto community, and CZ personally responded.
The voting mechanism for listing coins has sparked heated discussions again, and CZ stated, "We need to keep changing the model."
Since its launch in 2017, the voting for coin listing activities has been one of the most talked-about topics in the cryptocurrency community. This model, which determines coin listing projects through community voting, is considered a reflection of democracy and decentralization in the cryptocurrency world. However, over time, the voting for coin listing activities has also exposed some issues, leading to considerable controversy.
Recently, founder CZ responded to this topic on social media. He stated that the initial results of the voting for listing activities were good, but later some project teams attacked each other to win, "creating a feeling similar to PVP." At the same time, preventing cheating has become increasingly difficult over time. Therefore, CZ believes that the voting for listing model needs to be continuously updated, and it can still be done occasionally.
CZ's remarks have sparked widespread discussion within the crypto community. Some analysts point out that the voting on listing coins is a decentralized attempt, but due to the lack of effective regulation and constraints, it inevitably breeds some improper behaviors. Some project teams resort to means such as "black and gray industries" in order to win, seriously disrupting the voting environment.
In addition, the voting for listing coins also faces the "big fish eats little fish" problem. Well-known projects with large communities often win easily, while emerging projects, despite having outstanding innovative ideas and technologies, find it difficult to gain attention in the voting. This, to some extent, affects the fairness and diversity of the voting results.
In this regard, Wang Hui, a senior analyst at 8BTC, said: "The original intention of the voting listing activity is good, but many problems have been exposed in practice. I think that in the future, we may be able to explore a more fair and transparent listing mechanism, such as introducing third-party auditors and setting project entry thresholds. After all, listing is an important development opportunity for the project party. "
At the same time, many investors express understanding and support for the voting process for listing new coins. They believe that despite some issues, voting for new coins is ultimately a reflection of democracy in the cryptocurrency space. Compared to the subjective decisions made by exchanges regarding listing projects, the community voting approach is fairer and more transparent.
"Although the voting for listing activities is not perfect, I believe this is a stage in the development of the cryptocurrency market. As regulations improve and investor education levels rise, these issues will naturally be addressed." said an investor.
Overall, the voting for new coin listing activities has sparked heated discussions again, reflecting the demand for fairness, transparency, and democracy within the crypto community. CZ stated that he wants to "constantly change the model," which also suggests that more innovative mechanisms may be introduced in the future. For ordinary investors, maintaining a rational perspective and being cautious is the best attitude to cope with the turbulent crypto market.
4. Major Events
Major Event Review
2025-03-21 SEC Clarifies the Legality of PoW Mining The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) announced that proof-of-work ( PoW ) cryptocurrency mining does not violate federal securities laws. This move alleviates miners' concerns about regulatory oversight and is beneficial for the long-term development of PoW cryptocurrencies.
2025-03-20 BTC breaks 87,000 USD Affected by positive news such as the SEC's withdrawal of the lawsuit against Ripple Labs, Bitcoin surged to a daily high of over $87,000, with an increase of 3.71%. The PayFi sector led the gains with an increase of 8.95%, while XRP rose by 9.91%.
2025-03-20 MAX price soared by 22% The price of MAX coin broke through 0.15 USD on March 20, rising by 22% on the same day, making it a hot topic in the market.
2025-03-19 Christmas market momentum is building Analysts believe that despite the significant drop in altcoins on December 18, historical data shows a higher probability of the crypto market rising around Christmas. The Christmas-themed Meme coin Rizzmas continues to gain traction, with a market cap still around $17 million.
2025-03-19 + Launch The exchange launched the innovative product +, achieving deep integration. On the first day, 50,000 new users were added, with Turkey and three other countries contributing nearly 40% of the trading volume.
5. Global Policies
According to the news from March 14 to 21, 2025, the following are new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market:
The Trump Administration Supports the Development of Cryptocurrency
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Impact Analysis
The strong support of the Trump administration for the cryptocurrency industry marks a shift in U.S. policy towards a more cryptocurrency-friendly stance. This will inject new momentum into the industry, attracting more investors and innovators into the field. The zero tax rate policy will also stimulate cryptocurrency investment and trading activities. Overall, this series of favorable policies will promote the thriving development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem in the United States.
Tax authorities strengthen regulation on cryptocurrencies
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Impact Analysis
Strengthening regulation aims to ensure compliance in the cryptocurrency market, but it may also increase compliance costs for investors. This could have a certain impact on market activity in the short term. However, in the long run, it is beneficial for the healthy development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Investors need to stay informed about tax regulations and work with professionals to avoid potential legal risks.
Summary
Policies and regulations are important factors driving the development of the cryptocurrency industry. A friendly policy environment will bring new opportunities to the industry, while prudent regulation helps maintain market order. Cryptocurrency participants need to closely monitor policy trends and proactively respond to regulatory requirements to ensure the compliance of investment and innovation activities.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Please note that these suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks; enter the market with caution.
6.2 Investment Strategy
This Week's Popular Token Analysis
According to market data, the popular tokens this week include LOOKS, BTC, ETH, LTC, and SOL. LOOKS is the token of the NFT trading platform LooksRare, which redefines NFT trading through a unique token economics model and mining mechanism. BTC and ETH remain the leaders in cryptocurrency, holding the highest market capitalization share. LTC has seen active trading this week, with prices rising. The SOL ecosystem is rapidly developing, with DeFi and NFT trading volumes hitting new highs.
Trading Robot Strategy Analysis
The contract grid strategy has shown impressive performance, especially for mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and DOGE, where the return rates of the contract grid strategy are the highest. The contract grid strategy profits by setting grid buy and sell intervals, allowing for selling at high prices and buying at low prices during price fluctuations.
The yield of the spot grid strategy is also impressive, with significant following funds for cryptocurrencies such as XRP and KAS. The principle of the spot grid strategy is similar to that of the contract grid, but it is simpler to operate and has relatively lower risk.
The infinite grid strategy is suitable for cryptocurrencies with high volatility, such as GT, etc., and profits are made by dynamically adjusting the grid range.
The Martingale strategy is often used in the spot market, such as SUI, CSPR, etc., to profit during an uptrend by gradually increasing the bet.
The smart allocation strategy automatically adjusts the position ratios of different currencies based on market conditions, allowing for flexible operations but also carrying higher risks.
Summary
This week's quantitative strategies performed well overall, especially the grid strategies which yielded considerable returns. Investors can choose suitable strategies based on their own risk preferences, while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting positions in a timely manner.
6.3. Financial Management Products
1. Yubibao
Yubi Treasure is a Gate interest-earning financial product, with main features including: earning interest, flexible deposits and withdrawals, and interest compounding. After users subscribe, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing needs at each hour. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized return of 16.65% + 8.87%.
2. Wealth Management Treasure
The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive wealth management service center established by Gate.io, including various wealth management plans such as current and fixed-term options. The returns are calculated based on the specified annualized interest rate, and the distribution time varies by product.
3. Structured Financial Management
Structured finance is a new type of product based on a combination of fixed income and derivatives such as options. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by the relationship between the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period and the specified price to which it is linked.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly risky, and investments should be made with caution. All rights to the final interpretation of the data belong to Gate.io.
6.4. Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Analysis
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This analysis employs the following Bollinger Band trading strategy:
Backtesting the historical data of ETH from 2023 to 2025 based on this trading strategy, the backtesting results are as follows:
Data Analysis:
Advantages:
Disadvantages:
In summary, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy achieved good returns during the backtesting period, but there are also certain risks. Investors need to reasonably control risks during actual operations, while also combining other analytical methods to achieve better trading performance.
Data Source: Gate.io Financial Terminal Copyright Statement: The data analysis results contained in this report are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Entering the market based on this is at your own risk.