Bitcoin Price Hits $76K Bottom—Can It Rally to $100K by June 2025?

Key Insights:

  • A bottom might have formed in Bitcoin's price this week at $76k.
  • Bitcoin Reserve shock, low liquidity, and the dominance of short sellers in the markets have forced Bitcoin to stay below $100k.
  • Bitcoin could cross $100k again in June 2025 if the US Fed does not cut interest rates next week on 19 March 2025.
  • Trump's trade war could force US Fed to consider for a rate cut next week or provide revised guidance on interest rates.

Has Bitcoin Bottomed Out?

Bitcoin has been moving in a bearish trend just before Donald Trump signed the US National Digital Asset Stockpile Executive Order. The order disclosed that there would be no Bitcoin purchases at least in the near future, and the US Bitcoin Reserve would simply hold the existing assets with the US Govt.

Markets reacted sharply to this order, which earlier expected the US Govt to actively acquire Bitcoins. As a result, Bitcoin corrected to $80k levels. BTC saw another drop on 11 March 2023 as the liquidity crisis compounded earlier losses, taking Bitcoin to $76k price.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $82k with a slight 1% gain after recovering from the lows of this week. The RSI and MACD of Bitcoin on 1D charts also indicate an oversold territory.

Market KOLs and experts have seen this recovery as the sign of a bottom formation around $76k. Crypto chart expert, Ali Martinez, showed that Bitcoin could rally 9% as its price has been moving in an ascending triangle chart pattern.

However, many still believe that Bitcoin's bottom might not have come yet. In less than a week, i.e., next Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on the interest rates. The result of the meeting is expected to hold the rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50% window. What's more interesting is the Fed Chairman's comments on the future of inflation, interest rates, and state of the economy.

If Trump's trade war against all its major trading partners forces the economy to establish a new industrial supply chain, the US Fed would be forced to raise interest rates.

Factors Critical for Bitcoin to Cross $100k Again

US Fed Interest Rates

Current US interest rates are at one of the highest levels since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The interest rate window is at 4.25% to 4.50%.

These high interest rates have been sucking the liquidity out of the economy by raising the loan interest rates in the US economy.

It also leaves little money in the hands of the average, who then cannot invest in stocks, crypto, or other investment avenues. As a hedge against inflation (currently, 3% in the USA), the average investor has nothing else but the choice of Treasury Bonds and Gold at his disposal.

Without Trump's pressure tactics, US Fed was also expected to cut interest rates around June 2025. A rate cut of 0.25% was expected in the markets.

Whitehouse Working Group Report

The Whitehouse Working Group on AI and Crypto is about to publish or table its report around June 2025, as it has a 180-day working period to set the US Crypto Policy and corresponding regulatory laws.

The report is expected to be crypto-friendly, but until it comes along, the market is expected to remain uncertain about it.

Bitcoin Derivatives

Bitcoin's relatively weak price structure, along with the high number of shorts in derivatives market, makes its price weak. The existence of a heavy number of short sellers in the market (those who buy Puts and sell Calls) makes BTC fragile in terms of price.

For Bitcoin to cross $100k, the market needs to be more on the long side; i.e., filled with more put sellers and call buyers.

Bitcoin ETFs

ETFs are going to be most critical in establishing Bitcoin's price above $100k. Lately, Bitcoin's ETFs have seen a high redemption rate, which forces the ETF Trusts to sell Bitcoin in the market, pinning prices down.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.

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