贝伦贝格:不能排除英国央行意外降息

GoldenOctober2024
MP5,15%

金十数据9月19日讯,贝伦贝格分析称,市场对英国央行将把利率维持在5%的信心可能有点过高。美联储在英国央行宣布利率决定的前夕降息50个基点,而且自8月1日会议以来的数据较为疲弱,这表明有可能出现出人意料的结果。虽然降息不是该行的基本预测,但预计货币政策委员会(MPC)9名成员中的3名将投票支持一次降息。在本次会议上,MPC将就减少英国国债库存的目标进行投票。一年前,他们将缩减目标从800亿英镑上调至1000亿英镑,通过500亿英镑的债券到期和另外500亿英镑的主动出售实现这一目标。明年,英国央行将有多达870亿英镑债券到期。因此,相同数量的主动出售将使资产负债表收缩速度比以往更快。该行猜测MPC会将做出更保守的决定,以保持整体投资组合的稳定,降低英国国债供大于求的风险。但风险在于QT的步伐加快。

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