a16z顾问：预测市场中仅1.3%政治合约具备流动性，建议引入AI代理提供流动性

GateNews

Prediction Market

Source: Odaily星球日报

2026-02-14 04:15:07

Odaily星球日报讯斯坦福商学院教授、a16z&Meta 顾问 Andy Hall 在 X 平台发文表示，其团队建立了一个关注政治预测市场、流动性和结算规则的新数据集。研究发现，预测市场中绝大多数政治合约缺乏活跃度，仅 1.3%的合约具备足够流动性。Kalshi 与 Polymarket 很少列出规则相同的相同合约，导致流动性进一步碎片化。

Andy Hall 提出四项改进建议：第一，在核心问题上列出合约，与独立机构合作定义社会关注的市场；第二，向做市商支付费用以在政治市场注入初始流动性；第三，引入 AI 代理在人类不参与的领域进行交易，生成社会需要的价格参考；第四，跨平台建立统一的定义和结算规则。Andy Hall 认为，这些举措将吸引对冲政治风险的交易者，使预测市场成为社会所需的真相机器。

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to Disclaimer.

Articoli correlati

媒体：哈梅内伊之子被选定为伊朗下一任最高领袖

Prediction Market

Odaily星球日报讯据伊朗反对派新闻网站“伊朗国际”报道，受伊朗革命卫队施压，伊朗专家会议已选举哈梅内伊之子穆杰塔巴为下一任最高领袖。专家会议是伊朗的特殊权力机构，于 1983 年 11 月 12 日成立，负责选举伊朗最高领袖，并对其进行监督。报道发出后，预测网站 Kalshi 显示穆杰塔巴担任伊朗最高领袖的概率飙升至 77%。

GateNews44m fa

February Pullback Ends Six-Month Growth Streak for Prediction Markets

Prediction Market

February 2026 marked the first decline in prediction market activity since August 2025, yet trading volume remained high at $23.4 billion, indicating resilience and sustained interest despite a slowdown. Competitive market dynamics signal a shift towards stability.

LiveBTCNews7h fa

阿联酋考虑在战争蔓延之时打击伊朗

Prediction Market

阿联酋在经历多次导弹和无人机袭击后，考虑对伊朗进行军事行动。尽管大部分袭击被拦截，但已造成3人死亡和约70人受伤。阿联酋官员表示保留回应权，愤怒情绪上升，可能引发地区大国干预。市场预测其将在3月31日前打击伊朗的概率为51%。

GateNews7h fa

伊朗打击海湾国家施压美国适得其反，多国或将反击伊朗

Prediction Market Geopolitics

伊朗近期对海湾国家的空袭引发了其与美国的紧张关系，可能促使海湾国家联合抵制并加强集体自卫。海湾合作委员会召开紧急会议，明确设定红线，显示出伊朗的攻击反而加深了国家间的团结。

GateNews8h fa

Kalshi：支持交易劳力士、欧米茄等腕表的价格波动

Prediction Market

Foresight News 消息，Kalshi 发布推文表示，支持交易劳力士、欧米茄、卡地亚、帝舵等腕表的价格波动。

GateNews8h fa

Anonymous Trader Bets $25,676 on Iran Closing Strait of Hormuz by March 31

Prediction Market

Gate News bot message, approximately one hour ago, an anonymous wallet was created and placed a bet of $25,676 on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. Following this transaction, the odds have increased to 77%.

GateNews9h fa

Commento

0/400

Nessun commento