MSTR's huge Q4 loss raises market concerns: Will Bitcoin experience its first sharp crash in 2026?

2026-01-04 08:13:16

Entering 2026, the cryptocurrency market shows signs of a rebound driven by risk assets, with Bitcoin prices stabilizing and boosting related concept stocks in the short term. However, market sentiment remains fragile, as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, stock code MSTR) reported a huge loss in Q4, reigniting discussions about the “flash crash risk” of Bitcoin.

From the trend perspective, MSTR rose about 3.4% at the beginning of the year, closely correlated with Bitcoin’s rebound. But the fundamental pressures cannot be ignored. Since Bitcoin dropped approximately 24% in Q4, directly erasing about $2.8 billion in paper gains from the third quarter, the market widely expects MSTR to report a loss in the tens of billions of dollars for Q4. Its stock price has fallen approximately 48% cumulatively in 2025, with a retracement of nearly 70% from the November 2024 high.

Against this backdrop, analysts’ forecasts for MSTR’s full-year performance vary greatly, ranging from a loss of $7 billion to a profit of $9.5 billion. But considering that Bitcoin’s price at the end of the year was around $87,600, the market leans more toward a pessimistic outlook. This also brings the question of whether the “high leverage Bitcoin holding model” is sustainable back into focus.

Looking back at previous market turbulence, MSTR has not been the first to become a source of volatility. Due to its long-term holding of over 670,000 Bitcoins, any index adjustments or concentrated financial report risks often amplify market selling pressure. A noteworthy warning signal is that since the full shift to a Bitcoin strategy in 2020, MSTR’s stock price has experienced its first six consecutive months of decline, with a significant retracement and a clear technical weakening.

As Q4 financial reports are about to be released, market concerns grow that this event could trigger another round of emotional sell-off. With Bitcoin’s price still about 25% below its previous high, if the financial report deviates significantly from expectations, a new round of short-term intense volatility could be triggered in early 2026. For investors, MSTR’s financial report has become one of the important indicators to observe short-term Bitcoin risks.

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