🔥Judgment on the current crypto market cycle👇 Absolutely helpful for coin friends

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🎉Core Conclusion
We are still in the early stages of a new bull market, and there is still some way to go before a real frenzied rise (and the subsequent bear market). The main criteria for judgment are the following five points:
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🐯1. Systemic explosions have not yet occurred.
The turning point from bull to bear in the previous cycle was accompanied by the collapse of high-leverage giants such as Luna, 3AC, and FTX.
So far in this round, there have only been sporadic hacking incidents with limited financial involvement, and there has not been a chain collapse similar to a "large-scale deleveraging."
Without a deep explosion, there is a lack of catalysts for the market as a whole to deleverage and for the sentiment to completely turn bearish.
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🐯2. Leverage expansion is still in the "testing phase"
Currently, although the derivatives positions and on-chain lending are increasing, both institutions and retail investors are relatively restrained, and it is far from the time to go all-in and double down.
As long as the total leverage remains under control, the bullish momentum will not be rapidly countered.
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🐯3. The dominant force in this round is "sovereignty and pension capital"
Past cycles have often been led by star companies or family offices; this time the narrative is that the government level will incorporate Bitcoin into reserves, driving deep-pocket institutions such as sovereign funds and pension funds to enter the market.
This type of funds is large in scale and has a long holding period, which can push the price of Bitcoin to 150,000–200,000 USD, paving the way for subsequent retail FOMO.
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🐯4. The "second wave" of retail investors and DeFi leverage has yet to arrive.
When the government and institutions provide support, the sentiment of retail investors will truly be ignited, with a large amount of funds leveraging through DeFi protocols, entering a credit expansion cycle.
That is the accelerated phase of the "frenzied bull market", and it is also the phase where risk accumulates the fastest.
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🐯5. The sign of the future bear market: high internal leverage + chain explosions
We need to be vigilant about the emergence of high-leverage chain crashes on-chain or in centralized pt - once a single point of failure similar to Luna/FTX occurs and spreads rapidly, it means the top has been reached.
At present, no signs of such risks have been observed, so it is too early to say "the bear market has arrived."
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🎉Summary
Current position: early stage of the bull market, jg and zf layout period.
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The next catalyst: Sovereign and pension capital continues to buy → BTC shocks to 150,000–200,000 USD → Retail FOMO + DeFi leverage expands comprehensively.
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The real warning line: pay attention to whether there is a systemic leverage explosion; that is a reliable signal for the beginning of a bear market.
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In other words: The bear hasn't arrived yet, and the bull is just sharpening its knives. It currently feels more like a gathering before the storm, rather than a retreat before the curtain falls.

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