The highly anticipated U.S. employment data was released at 15:30. Accordingly, non-farm employment increased by 228 thousand in March, significantly surpassing the expectation of 140 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, compared to the expected 4.1%.
Following the data, the price of Bitcoin was mixed. The number one cryptocurrency rose above $83,000 in the first minutes, but then hit $82,143.
Economist Erkan Öz, who evaluated the employment data live on our YouTube broadcast, stated, "These figures may create some expectations that 'there will be no recession in the US', but it has really tied the hands of the Fed. If employment can still be this high despite Trump and Musk laying off so many government employees, then it means the Fed will not be able to lower interest rates."
Before the data, expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by May were stronger. The high employment figures have diminished this expectation. Now, June is emerging as the most likely month when interest rate cuts could begin.
On the other hand, traders continued to maintain their positions that the Fed would lower interest rates at least four times this year. In the current table, the probability of the Fed lowering the interest rate by 25 basis points in May is priced at 40 percent.
In the first comment from Goldman Sachs, it was stated that "Today's employment data will somewhat alleviate concerns that the U.S. labor market will soften quickly. However, this data is not currently the main focus of the market. The main issue is the topic of tariffs."
Don't forget to watch the US employment data release we conducted with the contributions of Gate TR:
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US employment data released: How have Fed forecasts changed?
The highly anticipated U.S. employment data was released at 15:30. Accordingly, non-farm employment increased by 228 thousand in March, significantly surpassing the expectation of 140 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, compared to the expected 4.1%.
Following the data, the price of Bitcoin was mixed. The number one cryptocurrency rose above $83,000 in the first minutes, but then hit $82,143.
Economist Erkan Öz, who evaluated the employment data live on our YouTube broadcast, stated, "These figures may create some expectations that 'there will be no recession in the US', but it has really tied the hands of the Fed. If employment can still be this high despite Trump and Musk laying off so many government employees, then it means the Fed will not be able to lower interest rates."
Before the data, expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates by May were stronger. The high employment figures have diminished this expectation. Now, June is emerging as the most likely month when interest rate cuts could begin.
On the other hand, traders continued to maintain their positions that the Fed would lower interest rates at least four times this year. In the current table, the probability of the Fed lowering the interest rate by 25 basis points in May is priced at 40 percent.
In the first comment from Goldman Sachs, it was stated that "Today's employment data will somewhat alleviate concerns that the U.S. labor market will soften quickly. However, this data is not currently the main focus of the market. The main issue is the topic of tariffs."
Don't forget to watch the US employment data release we conducted with the contributions of Gate TR:
Published: April 4, 2025 17:31