预测市场对美伊停火预期提高,6月底前停火已成为大概率事件

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BlockBeats 消息,4 月 6 日,据 PolyBeats 监测,在 Polymarket 上,市场对于美伊停火的预期自昨日开始不断提高,本月底之前停火的概率由 18% 升至 28%,5 月底之前停火的概率由 34% 升至 42%,6 月底之前停火则已成为大概率事件,几率为 53%。

停火预期的上升主要由特朗普对伊朗发出和谈最后期限驱动,目前特朗普设定的和谈时间底线为「美东时间周二晚上 8 点」(北京时间周三上午 8 时)。此外多个相关消息也提振了停火预期,消息人士透露,美国、伊朗及一组地区调解方正在讨论一项潜在 45 天停火协议的条款,该协议可能最终促成战争的永久结束。伊朗与阿曼也在周六举行会谈,讨论确保霍尔木兹海峡通航的多种方案。

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