分析:BTC正式进入熊市后半段,即使最后一跌也难破45,500美元

BlockBeatNews
BTC0,04%

BlockBeats 消息,4 月 3 日,分析师 Murphy 表示,观察到持有 1-2 年的 BTC 链上平均换手成本(黄线)与持有 1-3 个月的 BTC 链上平均换手成本(橙线)发生交叉。该信号在链上数据层面几乎可以 100% 确信,标志着 BTC 已正式进入熊市的后半段。

此外 Murphy 还表示,知名链上分析师 Willy Woo 提出的比特币长期估值指标 CVDD 在上月末达到 45,410 美元,较 2 月 10 日仅缓慢上升 506 美元。反映出早期巨鲸持币者已大幅减少甚至几乎停止链上换手。CVDD 是 BTC 历史上从未失效的少数指标之一——价格始终位于 CVDD 之上,熊市底部只会无限接近其但从未跌破。因此即使还有「最后一跌」,BTC 也不会低于约 45,500 美元,当前理论上至多存在约 30% 跌幅,但实际很可能远小于此。

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