Bitcoin Faces Extended Weakness Below Key Cost Basis

• Bitcoin stays below $72.5K realized price, signaling resistance and extended pressure similar to past bear cycles.
• Repeated rejections near $71K and drop to $66K confirm strong selling pressure and continued downtrend.
• Indicators show weak recovery signs, but losing $66K support could expose further downside toward $65K.

Bitcoin remains under pressure as it trades below a critical cost basis level, according to analyst Darkfost. The asset has stayed under the adjusted realized price of $72,500 for nearly two months. This level excludes inactive supply and reflects active market participants, highlighting continued resistance and weak recovery attempts.

Realized Price Acts as Firm Resistance

According to Darkfost, the adjusted realized price removes coins inactive for over seven years. This method filters out lost supply and long-term holders. As a result, the metric better reflects circulating Bitcoin in the market.

Currently, this adjusted cost basis is near $72,500. However, Bitcoin has failed to reclaim this level for weeks. Notably, past bear markets show similar behavior. During those periods, Bitcoin stayed below this metric for six to ten months.

This pattern suggests prolonged pressure may continue if history repeats. Therefore, the $72,500 level remains a key barrier for any sustained recovery.

Price Action Shows Continued Weakness

Recent price activity reinforces this trend. Between March 21 and March 25, Bitcoin traded between $69,000 and $71,000. However, repeated rejections near $71,000 confirmed strong resistance.

Source: TradingView

A brief breakout attempt on March 23 failed to hold momentum. As a result, the market formed lower highs afterward. From March 26, a clear downtrend emerged with consistent lower highs and lows.

The sharpest move occurred on March 27. Bitcoin dropped from around $68,500 to near $66,000. This decline confirmed strong selling pressure across the market.

Indicators Suggest Fragile Consolidation

Following the drop, Bitcoin stabilized slightly above $66,000. This level now acts as immediate support. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is near 48.7, indicating neutral momentum.

Meanwhile, the MACD shows early signs of a bullish crossover. The histogram has turned slightly positive, suggesting weak upward momentum.

However, the broader trend remains cautious. If Bitcoin holds above $66,000, a move toward $68,000 is possible. Conversely, losing this support could expose the $65,000 level again.