比特币或再度下探6万美元?四大信号指向回调加剧风险

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Gate News 消息,比特币在2026年初自98,000美元高点回落约40%后,目前徘徊在68,500美元附近,阶段性反弹动能开始减弱。尽管价格在2月低点60,000美元后形成上升通道,但多项技术与链上指标显示,这一结构更可能属于下跌趋势中的整理阶段,而非趋势反转起点。

从技术面来看,日线级别的相对强弱指数(RSI)出现隐藏看跌背离:价格不断形成更低高点,而RSI却持续抬升,通常意味着反弹缺乏真实动能。类似信号在3月初曾出现,并随后引发约11%的回调。目前该背离再次确认,叠加上升通道形态,市场存在向下破位的可能。

链上数据同样释放出谨慎信号。Glassnode数据显示,长期持有者的净持仓增速自3月中旬以来下降约24%,说明核心资金的信心边际走弱。同时,短期持有者NUPL指标维持在-0.21,仍处于亏损区间,但未达到此前深度投降水平。这意味着一旦关键支撑失守,短线资金可能迅速转为抛压。

衍生品市场结构进一步放大潜在波动风险。当前多头杠杆规模仍占主导,约42亿美元的多头头寸集中在较高区间,其中64,100美元附近聚集了约35.5亿美元的清算压力。一旦价格触及该区域,可能触发连锁强平,放大下行幅度。

关键价位方面,68,700美元成为短线分水岭。若失守,价格或回测66,400美元通道下轨;跌破后将打开通往64,100美元的空间,并可能进一步下探至60,900美元甚至56,800美元区域。相反,若比特币重新站上71,500美元,上行压力有望缓解,突破76,100美元则有助于重建多头结构。

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