JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Shows Safe-Haven Demand During Iran War as Gold, Silver Weaken

Bitcoin has demonstrated greater resilience than traditional safe-haven assets during the Iran war, attracting net inflows and showing stronger liquidity conditions while gold and silver have faced sharp outflows and position unwinds, according to JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Gold has fallen approximately 15% month-to-date, with gold ETFs recording nearly $11 billion in outflows over the first three weeks of March, while silver ETF inflows built since last summer have been fully unwound. In contrast, bitcoin funds have continued to attract net inflows over the same period, with the cryptocurrency trading near $69,000 after stabilizing following an initial sharp sell-off.

The analysts noted that crypto activity surged in Iran following the outbreak of war, highlighting bitcoin’s role during periods of economic instability, currency pressure, and geopolitical stress.

Bitcoin vs. Gold and Silver Performance

Price Action Divergence

Gold rallied to record highs near $5,500 per ounce in January 2026, while silver peaked near $120, leaving both metals vulnerable to profit-taking once market conditions shifted. JPMorgan attributed the subsequent sell-off to rising interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, and broad profit-taking by both retail and institutional investors. Bitcoin initially dropped sharply alongside broader risk assets, briefly falling into the low-$60,000 range, but has since stabilized in the high-$60,000 to low-$70,000 range, showing relative resilience even as geopolitical tensions persist.

Flow Dynamics

Gold ETFs saw approximately $11 billion in outflows in the first three weeks of March, while silver ETF flows reversed all inflows accumulated since summer 2025. Bitcoin funds, by contrast, recorded net inflows over the same period, pointing to relative strength compared with traditional safe-haven assets.

Institutional Positioning and Momentum Signals

Futures Positioning

JPMorgan’s proxy for institutional futures positioning—based on changes in CME open interest—showed a sharp buildup in gold and silver exposure through late 2025 and early 2026, followed by a steep decline since January, indicating profit-taking by institutional investors. Bitcoin futures positioning has remained relatively stable in recent weeks.

Momentum Trader Impact

Positioning signals tied to momentum strategies, such as commodity trading advisors (CTAs), show gold and silver swinging from “overbought levels to below neutral,” suggesting forced liquidations played a role in recent price declines. Bitcoin momentum signals, meanwhile, have been recovering from “oversold levels toward neutral,” indicating improving sentiment.

Liquidity Conditions

Market Breadth Shift

Gold has historically shown stronger market liquidity than both silver and bitcoin, as measured by the Hui-Heubel ratio, a metric tracking market breadth and liquidity. However, that dynamic has recently reversed. Gold’s liquidity conditions have deteriorated, with bitcoin now showing better market breadth, while silver has seen an even sharper decline in liquidity, which may have exacerbated its price moves.

Analyst Conclusion

The analysts concluded: “In all, silver ETF flows have unwound all of the previous inflows seen since last summer. The deterioration in liquidity conditions in gold has seen its market breadth decline below that of bitcoin currently.”

Bitcoin’s Role in Iran

On-the-Ground Activity

Crypto activity surged in Iran following the outbreak of war, as citizens moved funds from local exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms, according to Chainalysis data cited by JPMorgan. Bitcoin’s borderless nature, ability to be held in self-custody, and 24/7 trading availability made it a preferred vehicle for capital movement during periods of economic instability, currency pressure, and capital controls.

Safe-Haven Implications

The analysts highlighted that bitcoin’s performance during the conflict underscores its role as a potential safe haven for citizens of countries suffering from economic instability, currency pressure, and geopolitical stress, even as its immediate price action during shock phases may initially resemble high-beta macro assets.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has bitcoin performed relative to gold and silver during the Iran war?

Bitcoin has shown greater resilience, attracting net inflows and maintaining relatively stable prices in the high-$60,000 to low-$70,000 range, while gold fell approximately 15% month-to-date and silver saw its recent inflows fully unwound. Bitcoin’s liquidity conditions have also improved relative to gold, with its market breadth now exceeding that of the precious metal.

What factors drove gold and silver price declines?

JPMorgan analysts attributed the sell-off to rising interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, broad profit-taking by both retail and institutional investors, forced liquidations from momentum-driven strategies, and deteriorating liquidity conditions, particularly in silver.

Why did crypto activity surge in Iran during the war?

Citizens moved funds from local exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms, drawn by bitcoin’s borderless nature, ability to be held in self-custody, and 24/7 trading availability. The trend highlights bitcoin’s role during periods of economic instability, currency pressure, and capital controls.