高盛上调美国经济衰退概率至 30%,预计下半年 GDP 增长低于趋势水平

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Gate News 消息,3 月 23 日,高盛表示,受石油和天然气价格飙升影响,美国经济在未来 12 个月内陷入衰退的概率升至 30%,较此前预期提高 5 个百分点。高盛首席经济学家哈祖斯指出,能源价格冲击、中东冲突导致的金融状况收紧,以及特朗普总统去年夏天通过的重大税法效应逐渐消退,促使其将年底失业率的基准预测上调至 4.6%。高盛预计,美联储将在 9 月和 12 月降息,美国今年下半年的 GDP 增长将低于趋势水平,年化增长率预计在 1.25% 至 1.75% 之间。由于霍尔木兹海峡能源运输中断持续,高盛周一早些时候上调了今年的油价预测。该行表示,此次冲突将推高全球通胀,并使全球 GDP 增长率降低 0.4 个百分点,但在最坏情况下,对 GDP 的影响可能翻倍甚至增至三倍。

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