摩根大通下调标普500指数年底目标至7200点,警告油价冲击加剧衰退风险

Gate News 消息,3 月 19 日,据市场消息,摩根大通于 3 月 20 日将标普 500 指数(美国股市基准指数)的年底目标价从 7500 点下调至 7200 点,原因是受伊朗冲突影响,油价飙升加剧了经济衰退的风险。该银行警告称,市场可能低估了能源成本上涨对经济的影响。尽管投资者关注通胀,但摩根大通认为,消费者需求面临的威胁更大,这可能会削弱经济增长。历史上,油价飙升至 30% 以上往往会引发需求萎缩,并且经常是经济衰退的前兆。短期内,标普 500 指数可能进一步下跌,尤其是在跌破 200 日移动均线之后,这是一个看跌信号。如果抛售持续,该指数可能在 6000-6200 点附近找到支撑。尽管摩根大通仍然预计,在投资和刺激措施的支持下,今年晚些时候经济将出现复苏,但由于持续存在的地缘政治风险,复苏幅度可能会更加有限。

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