美债波动率升至九个月新高,债市「恐惧指数」创去年6月以来最高

Gate News 消息,3 月 13 日,美国国债市场波动率跃升至九个月新高,ICE BofA MOVE 指数(债券市场波动率指标,常被称为债券市场的「恐惧指数」)攀升至去年 6 月以来的最高水平。伊朗战争局势加剧了市场对通胀的担忧,并颠覆了交易员对美联储政策路径的预期。油价上涨进一步加剧通胀担忧,损害了美国国债的实际回报并削弱了其避险吸引力。对通胀和政府支出动态敏感的 30 年期美国国债收益率已升至一个月来最高水平,交易员减少了对 2026 年美联储降息的押注。美国总统特朗普和伊朗在战争中均表现出挑衅姿态,给冲突持续时间带来不确定性。Brandywine 全球投资管理公司投资组合经理 Jack McIntyre 表示:「作为债券投资者,我们必须开始从滞胀的角度思考,这总是会带来巨大的不确定性。因此,从波动性的角度来看,我需要得到补偿。」

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