Coinglass数据显示，过去一天内，全球加密市场清算金额超过8亿美元，16.5万名交易者遭遇平仓，Hyperliquid平台上的最大单笔清算达1136万美元。比特币与以太坊的期权交易显示下行风险加剧，25 delta偏斜度下降，提示短期熊市可能延续。Glassnode数据显示，净已实现损益三日均线每日下跌3.17亿美元，为2022年以来首次，表明流动性减弱且市场承压。

技术面亦显示进一步下行风险，比特币跌破2022年以来的365日移动平均线，可能下探6万至7万美元区间。知名分析师Peter Brandt及Michael Burry警告，比特币价格或进一步下行至5.8万美元，暴跌可能影响比特币交易公司、贵金属市场及整体金融市场。Strategy公司比特币持仓面临约40亿美元未实现损失，MSTR股票收盘下跌3.13%，报129.09美元。

机构需求减弱，现货比特币ETF持续资金外流，贝莱德抛售约3.738亿美元比特币。市场情绪方面，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数降至极度恐慌区域，投资者谨慎情绪高企。分析师Michael van de Poppe指出，比特币/标普500周线RSI已触历史低点，而Ali Martinez警告若比特币跌破77,086美元，下一个关键支撑位在60,176美元和47,824美元。

综合来看，比特币及主流山寨币的下跌反映市场结构性疲软，短期内熊市信号明显，投资者需关注杠杆清算风险及现货ETF资金流向。

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