Meme coin price prediction: DOGE, SHIB and PEPE all fall, Whale retreats and retail investors flee.

Meme coins represented by DOGE, Shiba Inu, and PEPE tokens are at a falling crossroads, facing the risk of further decline. CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the futures open interest for DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE tokens decreased by 2%, 7%, and 8%, to $1.7 billion, $77.8 million, and $227.45 million.

Retail and whale double retreat triggers supply pressure

(Source: CoinGlass)

Due to the speculative nature of meme coins often leading to severe fluctuations during market corrections, retail interest in meme coins is relatively low. CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the open interest (OI) of futures contracts for DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE has decreased by 2%, 7%, and 8% respectively, to $1.7 billion, $77.8 million, and $227.45 million. The decline in nominal value indicates that traders are reducing their risk exposure by lowering leverage or closing positions.

The open interest (OI) is an important indicator of market participation. When OI increases, it means new funds are entering the market, leading to an increase in market activity. Conversely, when OI decreases, it indicates that investors are exiting, showing a lack of market confidence. The 8% fall of PEPE is the most severe among the three, indicating that small-cap meme coins are more impacted during market corrections. The 7% fall of SHIB is also concerning, while DOGE's 2% drop is relatively mild, reflecting the relative resilience of this established meme coin.

(Source: Santiment)

On the other hand, on-chain data shows that large wallet investors, commonly referred to as “whales,” are losing interest in meme coins. Santiment data indicates that investors holding more than 100 million DOGE tokens have remained subdued since November 1, leading to a stable price trend. This “staying subdued” means that the whales have neither increased nor decreased their holdings, but have chosen to observe. The silence of the whales is often more dangerous than active selling, as it indicates a lack of confidence among large investors in the future market and a reluctance to support the market at current prices.

From a more negative perspective, the holding amounts of SHIB and PEPE whales (100 million to 1 billion tokens) are on a downward trend, indicating significant supply pressure. The active selling by whales is the strongest bearish signal, as these large investors typically have deeper market insights and more professional analytical capabilities. When they choose to reduce their positions, it often signals that prices will continue to fall. This selling pressure is more pronounced in the relatively illiquid meme coin market, potentially leading to a rapid price collapse.

Meme Coin Market Sentiment Deterioration Data

Futures OI Decline: DOGE -2%, SHIB -7%, PEPE -8% (24 hours)

Whale Position: DOGE remains unchanged, SHIB and PEPE continue to decrease their positions

Market Signal: Retail Investors Exiting + Whales Silent/Selling = Double Supply Pressure

This dual withdrawal of retail investors and whales forms the most dangerous combination in meme coin price prediction. When the market lacks new buying support, even small sell-offs can trigger significant price volatility.

DOGE Price Prediction: Death Cross Warning Falls to $0.15

(Source: Trading View)

As of the time of publication on November 3rd, DOGE has fallen over 4%, trading below $0.18000. Buyers are struggling to hold the support level at $0.17816, which is the low point from October 11th, but the price of DOGE continues to plummet. If the closing price is below this level, the downtrend may extend to the level of $0.15704, which is the low point from June 27th. Based on the current price, this means there is still about a 12% downside potential.

The price trend of DOGE has turned to a falling trend, with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 200-day EMA about to form a death cross. Previously, the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA also showed a death cross pattern. The potential death cross will confirm the continuation of the falling trend. The death cross is one of the strongest bearish signals in technical analysis, typically marking a trend reversal from upward to downward when the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average.

The momentum indicators on the daily chart show that as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) approaches the signal line, buying pressure is weakening. If the MACD blue line crosses below the red line, it indicates that selling pressure will reemerge. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, moving lower towards the oversold territory. There is still some distance from the oversold area, indicating that there is still room for a decline. A short-term technical rebound opportunity can only form when the RSI drops below 30 and starts to bounce back.

If DOGE can rebound from $0.17819, then the Sunday high of $0.18884 will become a direct resistance level. However, under the current technical setup and funding data, the likelihood of a rebound is relatively low.

SHIB Price Prediction: Psychological Barrier Lost, Bottom Testing in Progress

(Source: Trading View)

Shiba Inu has broken below the psychological barrier of 0.00001000 USD, marking a weak start to the week. As of the time of writing, SHIB has fallen over 3% on Monday, facing the risk of dropping below the support level of 0.00000974 USD, which is the closing price on October 10. If SHIB breaks below this level, the downtrend may extend further to 0.00000930 USD or 0.00000874 USD, corresponding to the lows on February 21 and January 24, respectively.

The MACD indicator and signal line show a weakening momentum in the upward trend, as the number of green bars above the zero line decreases. If red bars appear below the zero line, it indicates that the bearish trend is dominant. Similarly, the RSI indicator has fallen at 40 without reaching the midpoint level, indicating that selling pressure has re-emerged. This failed bounce of the RSI is a strong bearish signal, showing that the bulls have lost their ability to resist.

On the positive side, if SHIB rebounds from $0.00000974, the psychological resistance level at $0.00001000 and the local resistance trend line around $0.00001045 may hinder the recovery. However, given the continuous reduction of positions by whales and insufficient confidence among retail investors, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable.

PEPE Price Prediction: Support Trend Line at Risk

As of the time of publication on Monday, PEPE coin has fallen by 5%, due to weakened demand from retail investors and whales. The coin is approaching a local support trend line near $0.00000620, which is formed by connecting the lows from October 11 and October 30. If PEPE breaks below this level, key support levels are located at the lows of $0.00000525 and $0.00000279 set on March 11 and October 10, respectively.

The downward trend of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages indicates a strong falling trend is occurring. Similar to DOGE, the MACD indicator for PEPE is approaching a death cross at 34, and the RSI indicator is also nearing the oversold region. This bearish configuration from multiple technical indicators provides clear directional guidance for meme coin price predictions.

Optimistically, the revival of PEPE may test the local resistance trend line at $0.00000720, which is formed by connecting the highs on October 13 and October 27. However, against the backdrop of continuous selling by whales, any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity to reduce positions at a higher price.