Gate latest Crypto Assets market analysis (October 30): Bitcoin 110,600 falls into the "fear" zone, buy the dip or escape the top?

On October 30, the price of Bitcoin was reported at 110,600 USD, with a 24-hour Trading Volume of 13.83 billion USD, and a price range of 109,200 to 113,600 USD. The performance of alts showed divergence, and the Crypto Assets Fear and Greed Index was at 34, indicating a “fear” zone, with investors exhibiting strong cautious sentiment. The short-term trading strategy suggests getting on board BTC in the range of 109,000 to 110,000 USD.

Analysis of BTC and ETH Mainstream Coin Performance

(Source: CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin is currently priced at 110,600 USD, demonstrating remarkable resilience after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced a halt to quantitative tightening. The 24-hour Trading Volume reached 13.83 billion USD, with a price range between 109,200 to 113,600 USD. This relatively narrow fluctuation indicates that the market is undergoing a healthy consolidation. From a Crypto Assets market analysis perspective, BTC's ability to hold above 110,000 USD while maintaining high Trading Volume shows that institutional investors are not panicking and exiting due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.

Institutional investment continues to be a core factor in the stability of BTC prices. The amount of coins held by publicly listed companies has surpassed 1 million, indicating a growing confidence among enterprises in Bitcoin as a balance sheet allocation. The continuous accumulation strategy by companies such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) provides stable buying support for the market. The key support level is at $109,000, which has been tested multiple times and remains effective, showing strong buying power. The resistance level is at $114,000, and once broken, it will open up the space toward $120,000.

Ethereum is currently priced at $3,920, with a 24-hour volatility of 0.44%, showing a high degree of synchronization with Bitcoin's performance. The 24-hour trading volume has reached $6.44 billion, with a price range between $3,839 and $4,037. Market dynamics indicate that the spot trading volume in August has exceeded BTC for the first time, which is an important signal of increased activity in the Ethereum ecosystem. As more DeFi protocols, NFT projects, and Layer-2 solutions are deployed on Ethereum, its network usage continues to grow.

The key support level is at $3,900, which is not only a psychological barrier but also a technical support level, having been successfully defended multiple times. The resistance level is at $4,100, and breaking through this level will confirm Ethereum's mid-term upward trend. From the perspective of Crypto Assets market analysis, ETH's performance relative to BTC appears slightly lagging, but this relative weakness may be accumulating momentum for the next stronger rebound.

Mainstream Coin Key Data Overview:

BTC: $110,600 (+0.46%) | Trading Volume 13.83 billion | Support 109,000 | Resistance 114,000

ETH: $3,920 (+0.44%) | Trading Volume 6.44 billion | Support 3,900 | Resistance 4,100

Institutional Holdings: The listed company BTC holding exceeded 1 million coins.

Ecological Performance: ETH's spot trading volume in August surpassed BTC for the first time.

Altcoin Market Surge Signals and Risk Alerts

The most striking aspect of today's Crypto Assets market analysis is the explosive performance of alts. AURORA's price performance is at $0.0727, with a 24-hour increase of up to 40.09%, social media popularity rising, and trading activity active. This single-day increase of 40% indicates that market funds are seeking high-risk, high-return targets, which may signal the early signs of an altcoin season. However, investors must be cautious, as such surges are often accompanied by extremely high volatility and retracement risks.

The price performance of DMC is $0.00313, with a 24-hour increase of 24.4%. The trading volume is active, and there is significant short-term volatility. This medium increase, combined with active trading volume, indicates that DMC is attracting the attention of speculative funds. However, from a liquidity perspective, the bid-ask spread for such small-cap coins is usually quite large, and large trades may face significant slippage.

The price performance of QKA is at $1.46, with a 24-hour increase of 19.19%. The price volatility is significant, and trading is relatively active. The collective surge of three alts is not an isolated event but a signal of increased market risk appetite. When mainstream coins are consolidating, funds often spill over into the altcoin market in search of higher return opportunities.

However, the analysis of Crypto Assets market must emphasize the high-risk characteristics of alts. The price fluctuations of these coins far exceed those of mainstream coins, and their liquidity is relatively limited. A single-day increase of 40% may be tempting, but it could also see a correction of 30% to 40% the following day. Investors participating in altcoin trading must strictly control their positions, and it is recommended that the position in alts does not exceed 30% of total assets, with strict stop-loss points set.

Fear Index 34 suggests that a market bottom is forming

The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 34, in the “Fear” range, indicating that market sentiment is cautious. This index combines multiple dimensions such as volatility, market momentum, social media sentiment, Bitcoin's market dominance, and Google search trends, making it a reliable indicator of overall market sentiment. When the index falls below 40, it is typically seen as a “Fear” state, which often signals contrarian investors to look for buying opportunities.

Historically, when the Fear Index is between 30 and 40, it often indicates that the market is bottoming out. Investors are cautious, and there is significant short-term market pressure, but the existence of this panic sentiment actually reduces the risk of further major declines. When the majority are fearful, the market has usually already reflected most of the negative factors, and any positive news could trigger a strong rebound.

The current fear index is 34, which, along with the relative stability of mainstream coin prices, creates an interesting contrast. Typically, fear sentiment should accompany a price crash, but BTC remains stable at $110,000, and ETH holds at $3,900. This resilience demonstrates strong bottom support. This “fear but not crashing” market condition is often seen as a positive signal in crypto asset market analysis.

From the perspective of trading strategy, a fear index of 34 suggests adopting a cautiously optimistic attitude. One should not exit entirely due to fear, as it may lead to missing the bottom rebound; however, one should also not aggressively increase positions, as fear sentiment may further deepen. Gradually building positions and retaining some cash to respond to buying opportunities at lower price levels is a reasonable strategy in the current environment.

60/40 Configuration Strategy and Operation Suggestions

In terms of short-term trading strategy, it is recommended to get on board BTC in the range of 109,000 to 110,000 USD, and ETH in the range of 3,900 to 4,000 USD. Both ranges are tested support areas, and entering at these price levels offers a relatively good risk-reward ratio. For stop-loss and take-profit settings, BTC stop-loss is at 107,000 and take-profit at 115,000; ETH stop-loss is at 3,800 and take-profit at 4,100. This setup provides approximately a 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio, which meets the standards of professional trading.

Position management suggests that 70% should be allocated to mainstream coins and 30% to alts. This allocation balances potential returns and risk control. The 70% allocation to mainstream coins provides a stable base, while the 30% allocation to alts offers opportunities for excess returns. The risk rating is medium risk, suitable for the risk tolerance of most investors.

In terms of mid-term investment layout, the trend judgment is mainly for oscillating adjustments, cautiously bullish. The allocation suggestion is 60% BTC and 40% ETH, which is a more conservative allocation suitable for medium to long-term investors. Key points are to pay attention to regulatory policies and institutional dynamics, as these two factors will determine the mid-term direction of the market.

Investment Strategy Complete Framework:

Short-term strategy: Get on board BTC 109,000-110,000 | ETH 3,900-4,000 | Mainstream 70% Alts 30%

Mid-term Layout: BTC 60% | ETH 40% | Mainly focused on oscillation adjustments | Pay attention to regulation and institutions

Stop Loss and Take Profit: BTC Stop Loss 107,000 Take Profit 115,000 | ETH Stop Loss 3,800 Take Profit 4,100

Risk Level: Medium Risk | Suitable for Conservative Investors

Market Outlook and Core Risk Identification

Probability assessment shows a 60% chance of upward volatility and a 40% chance of adjustment. This assessment is based on a comprehensive judgment of the current technical, fundamental, and sentiment aspects. Catalytic events include institutional investment dynamics and changes in regulatory policies, both of which will continue to influence market trends in the coming weeks. The time frame anticipates that the market will gradually stabilize within 1 to 3 months, meaning the current phase of volatility and adjustment may last until early 2026.

In terms of core risk identification, systemic risk arises from global economic uncertainty, including the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, and geopolitical conflicts. Individual asset risks are mainly due to changes in regulatory policies; although the Trump administration has been friendly towards crypto assets, the specific regulatory framework is still being developed. Liquidity risk stems from fluctuations in market sentiment; when panic sentiment rises, some small-cap coins may experience liquidity depletion.

From a professional perspective of cryptocurrency market analysis, the current market is at a critical turning point. The technical indicators show that mainstream coins are building a bottom, altcoins are starting to become active, and the fear index is at a historical low. This combination often suggests that the market bottom is forming. However, investors should not be blindly optimistic, but should develop a reasonable allocation strategy based on their own risk tolerance.