Samsung Electronics, en collaboration avec Tesla, développe une puce AI, envoyant un signal de rebond pour la sous-traitance de wafers

Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor business is leveraging the strong momentum of its memory division to boost overall performance, but some observations suggest that it will take more time for its foundry operations to break even. However, as collaboration with Tesla on artificial intelligence chips expands from current production to next-generation products, this is becoming a key variable in judging the timing of a foundry rebound.

According to industry sources on the 26th, Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly revealed plans to upgrade its AI chip “AI4” during the earnings release on the 22nd. He expects mass production around mid-2027 and stated that Samsung Electronics is working on design modifications for this chip, with whether it can ultimately enter mass production being crucial. Industry interpretations suggest that Tesla has effectively indicated that the production of the improved AI4 product will be outsourced to Samsung. This product is a higher-capacity and higher-performance model than the AI4 produced in 2023, possibly called “AI4+” or “AI4.1”.

The cooperation between the two companies has expanded to the next-generation chips. Samsung Electronics has decided to participate in the production of Tesla’s “AI5” and “AI6,” with the AI6 order officially confirmed in July last year, reportedly amounting to about 23 trillion won. This is the largest contract for a single customer in Samsung’s semiconductor division. Currently, the existing AI4 is produced using 7-nanometer process technology on the foundry line in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, and this upgrade is also very likely to be produced in Pyeongtaek. AI5 and AI6 are planned to be manufactured using 2-nanometer process technology at the Texas factory in the United States. It is reported that AI5 will share production with TSMC, while AI6 will be exclusively produced by Samsung Electronics. These chips are AI semiconductors developed independently by Tesla for autonomous driving, used to achieve fully autonomous vehicle functions.

The background for Samsung’s foundry business securing successive Tesla orders is believed to be the trust built during the current AI4 production process, as well as the gradually stabilizing yield and performance of advanced process technology. Yield refers to the proportion of functional chips on a wafer; if this rate is low, even with factory operation, profitability is difficult. Recently, Musk also announced on X that AI5 has completed tape-out, expressing gratitude to Samsung Electronics and TSMC. Tape-out is the first step in moving from semiconductor design to pilot production. Correspondingly, the Taylor factory held an equipment commissioning ceremony on the 24th, with initial operations expected to start as early as the end of this year, and formal production of Tesla-related orders beginning next year.

The issue lies in the timing gap. Samsung Electronics’ preliminary operating profit for Q1 2026 was announced at 57.2 trillion won, but market estimates suggest that about 95%, or roughly 54 trillion won, came from the memory division. The non-memory division, including foundry, is observed to be experiencing a loss of around 1 trillion won. The securities industry believes that the annual loss of the non-memory division this year will reach 3 to 4 trillion won. Therefore, the Tesla effect is less about the signing of contracts itself and more about the actual shipment and revenue recognition timing, which will be more significantly reflected. Based on this, industry experts believe that the watershed for performance improvement will be after 2027, when the Taylor factory begins operation and customer shipments are combined. Samsung Electronics will release detailed first-quarter results for each division on the 30th, and questions about the specific operation schedule of the Taylor factory and the current state of customer cooperation are expected to be concentrated at that time. This trend could become a litmus test for whether Samsung’s foundry can surpass mere cost reduction and, by leveraging large clients, restore its competitiveness in advanced process technology.