Le prix de clôture du marché boursier taïwanais se maintient au-dessus du seuil des 28K ! Les investisseurs étrangers déploient toute leur puissance avec un achat net de 19,1 milliards, le début de la saison de bilan de fin d'année.

Foreign capital and joint investment trusts, proprietary traders, and the three major institutional investors net bought 19.117 billion yuan in a single day, hitting a recent high

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a 96% chance of cutting interest rates in December. As the expectation of ending the rate hike cycle continues to ferment, the Taiwan stock market rebounded strongly today. The three major institutional investors combined net bought 19.117 billion yuan, the highest in recent days, driving the weighted index to close at 28,303.78 points, up 1.15%, an increase of 322.89 points. Trading volume also expanded to 4,247.44 billion yuan, with the Taiwan stock closing price officially returning to and consolidating above the 28K level.

Among them, foreign investors are the main force, with a net purchase of 14.088 billion yuan in a single day, continuing a four-day buying trend. This week, net inflows have accumulated to 36.8 billion yuan; investment trusts shifted to financial stocks, with a net buy of 1.029 billion yuan; proprietary traders jumped on the theme train, with a net buy of 4 billion yuan. The eight major state-owned banks sold slightly, with a net sale of 2 billion yuan, reflecting a solid consensus in the bullish market.

Capital rotation accelerates, Asian financial and value stocks become new favorites

Market observations indicate that the deep driving force behind this wave of net buying comes from a rebalancing of global capital allocation. As high-valuation tech stocks in the US face profit pressure, foreign investors have begun to withdraw from AI technology stocks and shift towards Asian financial and value stocks. The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.2% to 39,800 points, South Korea’s KOSPI increased 0.8% to 2,650 points, China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.3% to 3,150 points, and India’s Nifty 50 gained 0.9% to 24,200 points. The entire Asian stock market shows a pattern of more gains than losses.

Foreign investors have net inflows of over 15 billion USD this week, with India and Vietnam each attracting 2 billion USD, benefiting from 6-7% GDP growth and supply chain transfer effects; Japanese bank stocks surged up to 2.5%, highlighting that undervalued financial stocks (with yields over 5%) are becoming new focal points for capital, signaling a strategic shift from high-valuation tech bubbles to value investing.

Semiconductors lead the rally with limit-up waves, TSMC’s contribution to the index exceeds 200 points

Internal sector rotation in Taiwan stocks is particularly evident. The semiconductor index surged 2.31%, with Wanghong, Macronix, VSE, Siliconware, and Huadong hitting the daily limit-up. Nanya Technology rose 6.86% to 163.5 yuan, driven by a 15% increase in DRAM and NAND prices and inventory replenishment demand; glass stocks led the gains with a 4.22% increase, with Taiwan Glass up 4.8% to 38.2 yuan and Fuhua Technology up 7.73%. PCB stocks continued their hot trend, with Unimicron up 4.8%, reflecting full orders for AI servers and a recovery in the global electronics supply chain.

In terms of heavyweight stocks, TSMC rose 2.4% to 1,495 yuan (up 35 yuan), contributing over 200 points to the index. Hon Hai and MediaTek rose steadily by 0.43% and 1.05%, respectively. The financial sector increased by 0.28%, with Fubon Financial and Taishin Financial rising over 2%, benefiting from the New Taiwan dollar appreciating to 31.25 yuan, reducing currency exchange costs.

Technical outlook turns stronger but risk signals emerge, 15 stocks with cancellation rates of 30-50%

From a technical perspective, Taiwan stocks’ RSI rose to 68, entering a bullish zone, with support at 28,000 points and short-term resistance at 28,500 points. Investment trusts predict that, following the historical average increase of 4-6% in December, year-end profit-taking may continue, and the 28,500-point level could be reached soon.

However, concerns are also emerging. The Taiwan Stock Exchange has identified 15 stocks to watch, including Nanya Technology, Macronix, Unimicron, Taiwan Glass, and others in the semiconductor, PCB, and transportation sectors. These stocks have experienced excessive gains and abnormal trading, with cancellation ratios reaching 30-50%, indicating that major players’ control and short-term short-covering risks are gradually increasing. Experts warn that the year-end profit-taking atmosphere may tempt retail investors to chase highs, and events like the Taiwan index futures limit-down in August 2024 could recur.

Investment advice: Reduce positions on rallies, focus on fundamentally stable stocks

PGIM Prudential analyst Liao Bingkun stated that the traditional peak season in December, combined with ongoing AI profit growth, has pushed Taiwan’s market capitalization to 82.5 trillion yuan, with trading volume expected to rebound to 4,500 billion yuan. However, Fubon Securities Chairman Chen Yiguang reminded that if the rotation encounters data exceeding expectations after the Fed meeting (such as core PCE heating up), it could trigger profit-taking. Investors should closely monitor tonight’s US economic data and the Fed’s decision in the coming days.

Moore Investment Consulting analyst Xie Wen’en suggested that investors should reduce positions on rallies, shift to fundamentally stable financial and value stocks such as Fubon Financial and TSMC, with stop-loss settings within 5%. Diversifying holdings and tracking Fed meeting results can help balance optimism and caution, enabling investors to seize the year-end market while avoiding being caught off guard or chasing highs.